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Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4

NCBoxingOnline / April 28, 2013 / No comments

Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4
May 2, 2013	#38 Mauricio Herrera 18-3 (7) vs. #23 Ji-Hoon Kim 24-8 (18), 10 rounds, Junior Welterweights	Corona, CA
This Friday in Corona, California, hard-hitting veteran Mauricio Herrera takes on the always entertaining Ji-Hoon Kim on the latest installment of ESPN’s Friday Night Fights. Herrera is 18-3 with 7 knockouts, he is currently rated 38^th according to boxrec.com, and he brings a very entertaining style with him to the ring. In addition to being a tough, aggressive fighter, Herrera is also very experienced, having recently gone ten rounds with both Karim Mayfield (#11) and Mike Alvarado (#4), and having beaten 17^th rated Mike Dallas Jr. and 13^th rated Ruslan Provodnikov. Herrera’s opponent in this fight is FNF regular Ji-Hoon Kim, a 26-year old South Korean with a record of 24-8 (18 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #23. Kim is an all-action fighter (to the dismay of his trainers) and he is a tough kid with a decent amount of power, but he has lost 3 of his last 6 fights, and he showed SERIOUS “defensive deficiencies” in his latest ten round loss to Raymundo Beltran (#7).This should be a very entertaining and action packed fight. Both guys have engaging styles, both throw a high volume of punches, and neither seems to shy away from contact. I predict that Kim will fight like a man possessed (like always), but I think Herrera, being a bit more polished defensively, will find ways to score and not get hit as often in return. Kim only knows one way to fight, and that is head down with arms pumping, and if Herrera can land combinations and utilize a little head and foot movement, I think he will do more damage, and ultimately claim a close decision on the scorecards. (Herrera by decision:96-94)
May 3, 2013	#1 Yota Sato 26-2-1 (12) vs. #50 Srisaket Sor Rungvisai 18-3-1 (17), 12 rounds, WBC Junior Bantamweight Title	Si Sa Ket, Thailand
This Friday in Srisaket, Thailand, Japanese WBC Junior Bantamweight Champion Yota Sato, looks to make the 3^rd defense of the title he won against Suriyan Sor Rungvisai in March of last year. Soto is 26-2-1 with 12 knockouts, he is currently rated #1 by boxrec.com, and he has not lost since September of 2005 (a period of 22 fights). Sato is a tall fighter (5’7”) with a good jab and good lateral movement, and against Sor Rungvisai he boxed nicely from the outside and offset the aggression of his smaller opponent by getting in and out quickly. In this fight, Sato faces a similar opponent in 48^th rated Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, a 26-year old from Thailand with a record of 18-3-1, including 17 knockouts. Despite starting his career at 1-3-1, Rungvisai has since won 17 straight fights, and he has positioned himself for a shot at the WBC title due in part to his abundance of knockout wins (17 KO’s in 22 fights). Unfortunately, Rungvisai has not faced anyone on the level of Sato (excluding Akira Yaegashi who dealt him his 1^st professional loss back in 2009), and his best win to date (arguably) was over 80^th ranked Wilber Andogan, a 9-11-4 fighter who has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights. Rungvisai is an aggressive puncher who covers well, and if he can get inside the long jab of Sato he could make things interesting, but that may be more difficult than it seems.This is another good boxer/puncher matchup, and Rungvisai, in favorable confines, might have a chance to win. As it stands, however, I think Sato is the better all-around boxer, he is more experienced, and he matches up better physically. Therefore, while I think Rungvisai will make for a good fight, I think Sato will use his excellent jab, his awkwardly effective style, and his quick hands to box his way to a close, but deserved win on the cards. (Sato by decision:116-112)
May, 4, 2013	#1 Floyd Mayweather Jr. 43-0 (26) vs. #4 Robert Guerrero 31-1-1 (18), 12 rounds, WBC Welterweight Title	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime PPV)
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
May 4, 2013	#4 Daniel Ponce De Leon 44-4 (35) vs. #2 Abner Mares 25-0-1 (13), 12 rounds, WBC Featherweight Title	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime PPV)
After losing back-to-back fights with Adrien Broner and Yuriorkis Gamboa in 2011, the free swinging Daniel Ponce De Leon has since won 3 in a row, and he is looking to defend his newly acquired WBC title against the very talented Abner Mares this weekend in Las Vegas. De Leon is 44-4 with 35 knockouts, he is currently rated 4^th according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of a dominating performance against 7^th rated Jhonny Gonzalez this past September. He hits hard, he is extremely durable and well conditioned, and at 32-years of age, he is showing no signs of slowing down. “The most important fight ahead of me is against Abner Mares. I want to beat him, so all my past fights do not interest me. The fight I have ahead of me is the one that matters,” said De Leon. “I feel like a winner. I train with a lot of strength and that is the key to victory.”De Leon’s opponent in this fight is 27-year Abner Mares, a former 2-division titlist who has his sights set on acquiring a 3^rd title. He is 25-0-1 with 13 knockouts, he is currently rated #2 according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of a sensational title winning performance over Anselmo Moreno (#2) back in November of last year. Mares is a tough, aggressive guy that closes the distance well and lands accurate power shots on the inside. He is extremely experienced for a guy with only 26 fights (having fought Anselmo Moreno, Joseph Agbeko twice, Vic Darchinyan, Yohnny Perez, and Eric Morel in his last 6 fights), and he is capable of changing the dynamic of a fight with his high volume attack. Against Eric Morel, Mares averaged close to 65 punches a round; however, it is not uncommon for his output to exceed the 80 mark, as it did against Yohnny Perez (1032 total punches thrown over 12 rounds). Mares’ greatest asset, however, may be his ability to adapt and fight according to his opponents’ weaknesses. He can box and offset more aggressive challenges, or he can press the action, land accurate power shots, and rely on his excellent conditioning to extend the pace of the fight into the later rounds. Over his last 6 fights, Mares has landed at an average of 34% (slightly above the junior featherweight average of 32.9%) and he has been hit (on average) about 30% of the time. This should be an EXCELLENT fight. Mares is capable of using his speed and footwork to out-box De Leon, but I think his warring mentality will force him into a battle at close quarters (making this a much more difficult fight than it should be). “You gotta give the fans what they wanna see, what they paid to see, and that’s a war, and a fight,” said Mares. “That’s what myself and Ponce De Leon gotta give.” Therefore, while I think Mares will ultimately find a way to flurry and box his way to victory, I think he is in for a rough, physical, ugly fight, and I think he will be bruised, battered but victorious when the final bell sounds. (Mares by split decision: 115-113)
May 4, 2013	#3 Leo Santa Cruz 23-0-1 (13) vs. #127 Alexander Munoz 36-4 (28), 10 rounds, Junior Featherweights	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)
Former IBF Bantamweight Champion Leo Santa Cruz moves up to the junior featherweight division this weekend to take on 127^th rated Alexander Munoz for the vacant USBA title. Cruz, perhaps the most vicious body puncher in the entire sport, is 24-years old, he is 23-0-1 with 13 knockouts, and he is currently rated 3^rd overall by boxrec.com. Cruz won the IBF title with an easy decision over 32^nd rated Vusi Malinga back in June of last year, and since then he made successful defenses against Alberto Guevara (#31), Victor Zaleta (#32) and Eric Morel. In this fight, Cruz faces Alexander Munoz, a tough 34-year old from Venezuela who has never been stopped in 40 professional fights. Munoz, 36-4, has been in with some solid opposition so far in his 14-year career, including 15^th rated Koki Kameda, and 6^th rated Cristian Mijares, but he has only fought one time over the past 28 months (a TKO over 504^th ranked Ever Garcia Hernandez last November), and his last 4 victories came against fighters with a combined record of 49-65-6. In the end, I think Munoz will put forth a valiant effort, but the stalking, body punching tendencies of Santa Cruz will be WAY too much to overcome. In his fight against Eric Morel, Santa Cruz LANDED 55 punches a round, and connected on a staggering 66% of his power shots, and against Victor Zaleta he threw 93 punches per round and landed 41%. If he does even close to that (against a ring-rusted fighter who is not accustomed to getting blasted to the body repeatedly for 12 rounds), then I think Santa Cruz will get his 14^thwin inside the distance. (Santa Cruz by 7^th round TKO)
May 4, 2013	#65 J’Leon Love 15-0 (8) vs. #12 Gabriel Rosado 21-6 (13), 10 rounds, Middleweights	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)
Undefeated prospect J’Leon Love takes on the biggest test of his young career this Saturday night when he faces the always tough Gabriel Rosado on the Mayweather-Guerrero undercard from Las Vegas. Love, a 25-year old, fighting out of the Mayweather Gym in Vegas, is 15-0 with 8 knockouts, and is rated 65^th according to boxrec.com. He is a quick-handed, physically strong fighter, with good defensive skills and he can fight out of the pocket extremely well. Unfortunately, Love has yet to be tested, and on May 4, he will be in with a world class opponent who is anxious to return to his winning ways after suffering a tough TKO loss to 3^rd rated Gennady Golovkin back in January. Up until that fight, Rosado had won 7 fights in a row, including TKO wins over 36^th rated Jesus Soto Karass, and 39^th rated Sechew Powell. Now 27-years old, Rosado is 21-6 with 13 knockouts, and he is currently rated 12^th according to boxrec.com. Aside from being one of the most exciting fighters in the middleweight division, Rosado is an aggressive guy, he throws combinations well, and he is a very good body puncher. This should be a VERY entertaining fight. I seem to say that about every fight that Rosado is in, but he is looking to rebound after a difficult loss, and he is in with a very talented young fighter looking to make a name for himself. I can see Love having success early from distance as Rosado paws his way forward, but I think Rosado has the power and experience to make this a rough fight (something Love has not experienced), and I predict he will win the exchanges in close. Therefore, if Rosado can negate some of Love’s hand speed, bang him to the body often, and make it a physical fight, I think his experience and proven toughness make him a slight favorite to win. (Rosado by close, tough decision: 115-113)
May 4, 2013	#2 Wladimir Klitschko 59-3 (50) vs. #13 Francesco Pianeta 28-0-1 (15), 12 rounds, IBF/WBO/WBA Heavyweight Title	Mannheim, Germany (Epix)
Wladimir Klitschko looks to keep his 17-fight win streak alive with a victory over Germany’s Francesco Pianeta this weekend in Mannheim, Germany. Klitschko has not lost since 2004, he has recorded stoppages in 7 out of last 9 fights, and his career KO percentage now stands at 81%. He is a big, strong, mobile heavyweight with a punishing and active jab and a devastating right hand, and he is vastly more experienced than Pianeta (having fought in 157 world championship rounds, to Pianeta’s zero.) He is also an exceptional boxer (having never been decisioned), and it is virtually impossible to muster up any offense against him (his last six opponents averaged just 24 punches a round, and only five punches landed-numbers that fall about 50% and 70% below the heavyweight average respectively). In this fight, Klitschko faces a fighter that is comparable in stature (6’5”, 240 lbs) but on par, in terms of ability, with his usual nameless rabble of victims. Pianeta is undefeated, at 28-0-1 (15 KO’s), he is currently rated 15^th according to boxrec.com, and he has managed to record a few recent victories over some washed up ex-champions like Frans Botha and Oliver McCall; but he is a bit lumbering, he doesn’t possess tremendous power (5 of his last 6 fights have gone the distance), and his offensive instinct could hardly be described as being “killer.” Pianeta is a southpaw, however, with decent footwork and defensive ability, and if he doesn’t over-commit, doesn’t over-extend, and doesn’t try to do too much on offense, there is a good chance that he will survive for the full 12 rounds. I think this is ANOTHER easy victory for Wladimir (what else is new?), and another example of the sorry state of heavyweight boxing these days. Pianeta is currently rated 7^th by the WBO and 12^th by the WBA, but his recent victories over fighters barely ranked in the top 100 hardly make him worthy of a title shot against the best heavyweight in the world. In the end, I can see Pianeta working the jab, maintaining distance, and making the fight close (dull) over the first half of the fight. However, after Wladimir assesses the situation, I think he will start to monopolize the real estate, and Pianeta will be forced to move and cover, or tempt fate in the danger zone. In all, I think Pianeta will fight respectably (much like Wach did in his last fight), but in the end, In think Klitschko is way too experienced, he hits harder, he is faster, and he is far more likely to impose his will (and jab) upon his less experienced foe. (Klitschko by late round stoppage)
May 4, 2013	#UNR Mike Perez 18-0 (12) vs. #57 Travis Walker 39-9-1 (31), 10 rounds, Heavyweights	Mannheim, Germany (Epix)
Undefeated Cuban heavyweight prospect Mike Perez steps up in class this weekend to take on 57^th rated gatekeeper Travis Walker in Mannheim, Germany. Perez, a former Cuban amateur standout, is 27-years old, he is 18-0 with 12 KO’s, and he is poised to take the next step forward in his career. He is an exciting, explosive puncher with good hand speed and he has ability to overwhelm with his high-volume attack. Standing opposite Perez is 33-year old Texas native Travis Walker, an experienced, powerful fighter with a record of 39-9-1 (31 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #57. Walker has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, and he is only 8-7 in his past 15 fights, but he has been in with some of the best heavyweights in the world, including Jonathan Banks, Ruslan Chagaev, Kubret Pulev, and Tomasz Adamek. He is a strong, 250-pounder with an 82” reach and good skills, but he has been knocked out 6 times total, and he has had some endurance issues in past fights. Ultimately, this fight pits the slick-boxing skills and speed of Perez, versus the power, strength and experience of Walker. I think Perez is capable of out-boxing Walker in this one, but he must be very careful to avoid the big overhand right (the one that dropped Tomasz Adamek), and he must keep Walker from setting down and landing power shots. I expect a good fight from these two. Walker has all the attributes of a good heavyweight contender, but he can be wild at times, and his chin is not exactly world class. Nevertheless, he is still a very dangerous opponent, and Perez would be wise to show some caution early. He hasn’t fought in nearly 16 months, and it may take him a few rounds to negotiate the timing and distance against his taller opponent. However, I think Perez will ultimately find the rhythm, and he will begin to jab his way inside, throw combinations, and control the fight with his activity and speed, winning by 5-6 points on the cards. (Perez by decision: 97-93)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, boxing previews, daniel ponce de leon abner mares, Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4, floyd mayweather jr. robert guerrero, j'leon love gabriel rosado, leo santa cruz alexander munoz, mauricio herrera ji-hoon kim, mike perez travis walker, showtime boxing, Uncategorized, wladimir klitschko francesco pianeta, yota sato srisaket sor rungvisai / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, daniel ponce de leon abner mares, Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4, floyd mayweather jr. robert guerrero, j'leon love gabriel rosado, leo santa cruz alexander munoz, mauricio herrera ji-hoon kim, mike perez travis walker, showtime boxing, wladimir klitschko francesco pianeta, yota sato srisaket sor rungvisai

Danny Garcia-Zab Judah Preview

NCBoxingOnline / April 21, 2013 / No comments

Danny Garcia vs. Zab Judah (WBC/WBA Jr. Welterweight Titles) *12 Rounds, Brooklyn, NY, April 27, 2013 (Showtime)*
This Saturday night in Brooklyn, Danny “Swift” Garcia defends his WBA/WBC junior welterweight titles against super slick southpaw Zab “Super” Judah. After registering a stunning TKO victory over Amir Khan back in July of last year, Garcia has since defeated Erik Morales for a second time, and he has run his record to a perfect 25-0 with 16 knockouts. He is an explosive, gutsy fighter, and his resolve will be put to the test against veteran cutie Zab Judah, who comes into the fight with a 42-7 record (29 KO’s) and a recent boxrec.com rating of #4. Judah, now 35-years old, is 6-1 since November of 2008 (with his only loss coming by way of a controversial TKO to Amir Khan back in July of 2011), and during that span he defeated Vernon Paris and Lucas Matthysse (fighters currently rated 25^nd and 3^rd respectively). This should be an excellent matchup between a confident young puncher with speed, power, and an eccentric father (Garcia), and an experienced defensive technician out to prove he has some gas left in the tank (Judah). Does Zab have what it takes to turn back the clock and win his 6^th world title, or will Danny Garcia successfully defend his titles and continue along his path to superstardom? Either way, whether it is a “Swift” victory for Garcia, or a “Super” upset win for Judah, it should be a terrific night of boxing, and you can catch all the action beginning Saturday at 9:00 pm ET on Showtime.
Danny Garcia 25-0 (16)		Zab Judah 42-7 (29)
A-	Boxing Ability & Intangibles	A-
B+	Hand Speed	A-
A	Opposition & Experience	A+
B-	Defense	B
B+	Power	B-
C-	Punch Output	D
A	Chin	B+
C	Punch Accuracy	C-
A	Conditioning	A
B+	Aggression	B
The Break Down Danny Garcia is a skilled boxer puncher with good hand speed, a good looping right hand, and the accuracy (about 30%) necessary to fight effectively out of the pocket. He is also a tough, aggressive, kid whose offense is comprised of about 67% power shots. In fact, in his first meeting with Erik Morales, Garcia threw 205 more power shots than his adversary (445 to 240), and he out-landed him by 99 punches in that category (170-71). Traditionally, Garcia throws about 30 power shots a round (landing about 40%), and in this fight it will serve him well to continue with that tradition. Judah is elusive (in the vein of Pernell Whitaker), and he punches well from varying angles, but he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of punches (only 49 per round-11 under the junior welterweight average of 60.3), so an aggressive, active strategy is the key to victory for Garcia. For Zab Judah, who is a good boxer with good lateral movement and hand speed, he will need to snap the jab, throw combinations, and not give Garcia a chance to get set. Against Amir Khan, Garcia had difficulty (through the first 2 ½ rounds) dealing with Khan’s speed and movement, and a bit of frustration was evident as he tried to get in range and score (Khan out-threw Garcia 114-37 in the jab department, and out-landed him 46-5). If Judah wants to be successful in this fight he must do the same thing (only better and for a longer period of time). Judah is already an exceptional defensive fighter, but he must offer up more offensively to dissuade Garcia from getting in close and setting down on his punches. Conclusion This fight will be determined by Judah’s ability to score quickly and get out, and not get caught “square.” Garcia is a solid puncher with a 64% KO rate, and he is tough enough to withstand Judah’s shots, so facing off against him is a recipe for disaster. Instead, Judah must score with the jab, shoot lead left hands, and throw meaningful combinations. Garcia is not terribly difficult to hit (Amir Khan landed 45% against him, and 50% of his power shots), so Judah can find opportunities to land, but he must be willing to match Garcia in the power department if he wants to impress the judges. Garcia has a knack for landing hard, clean shots, and if Judah relies too heavily on his jab (which typically comprises 40%-50% of his total offense) then his “lighter” punches won’t get scored equally. In the end, I look for Judah to fight a smart, defensive fight, relying on his hand speed and experience to frustrate Garcia; but as the fight wears on, I think Garcia’s aggression, his accurate power punching, and his ability to get off first will be the keys to victory. Therefore, while I predict Judah will do well over the first half of the fight, I think Garcia will eventually catch him, rough him up on the inside, and take him out in the late rounds. (Garcia by 10^th round KO)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, Danny Garcia-Zab Judah Preview, showtime boxing, Uncategorized / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, Danny Garcia-Zab Judah Preview, showtime boxing

Saul Alvarez-Austin Trout Preview

NCBoxingOnline / April 17, 2013 / No comments

Saul Alvarez vs. Austin Trout WBA/WBC Jr. Middleweight Unification *12 Rounds, San Antonio, TX, April 20, 2013 (Showtime)*
This Saturday night on Showtime, junior middleweights Saul Alvarez and Austin Trout face off in a much anticipated title unification bout from San Antonio, Texas. Alvarez, still just 22 years of age, is 40-0-1 with 30 KO’s, he is currently rated #1 by boxrec.com, and he is coming off of an impressive 5^th round TKO over 12^th rated Josesito Lopez back in September of last year. He is an aggressive, hard-hitting, immensely popular champion, and as Ring’s Magazine’s #2 overall pound-for-pound, he is one of the most exceptional talents in the sport today. “We are working hard,” said Alvarez. My team and I are focused 100% on my opponent. I have great respect for Austin Trout and what he has been able to achieve. He’s a very intelligent fighter, young, skilled, and tough. It’s not going to be an easy task to beat him, but we’re working hard and getting ready. I respect Trout outside of the ring, but once he’s in the ring, that’s a whole different thing.” His opponent in this fight, WBA junior middleweight champion Austin Trout, is a 27-year old from New Mexico with a record of 26-0 (14 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #2. Trout, who won the title with a “workmanlike” performance against 15^th rated Delvin Rodriguez in June of 2012, is coming off of a resounding decision win over future hall of famer Miguel Cotto this past December, and he is confident that he will walk out with the title still strapped comfortably around his waist. “I’m a fast, hungry champion,” said Trout. “I don’t believe that Canelo is the second coming of Oscar De La Hoya. I do believe that I’m the better fighter. If I didn’t think I could be victorious, I wouldn’t be risking my life and limb to face this man. I wouldn’t be risking my undefeated record and my belt if I didn’t believe in myself. I’ll be victorious, and I’ll go home as the unified champion.” So tune this Saturday at 10 PM ET to witness one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year, the junior middleweight unification battle between two of boxing’s biggest stars, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and Austin “No Doubt” Trout.
Saul Alvarez 40-0-1 (30)		Austin Trout 26-0 (14)
A	Boxing Ability & Intangibles	A
B+	Hand Speed	A
B+	Opposition & Experience	B+
B+	Defense	B+
A-	Power	C+
D+	Punch Output	B+
A	Chin	A
A+	Punch Accuracy	C
A	Conditioning	A
A+	Aggression	B-
The Break Down Austin Trout is an active, slick-boxing southpaw with quick hands and a nice assortment of offensive weapons. Occasionally, however, he has a tendency to paw with the jab rather than using it as an effective weapon (he landed just 37 out of 419 jabs in his fight with Delvin Rodriguez and 46 out of 349 versus Cotto), and he throws punches from too far out (as evidenced by his 22% overall punches landed statistic against Rodriguez). Nevertheless, Trout does throw the jab often, and he is an excellent defensive fighter with good foot movement, who moves in and out of range well (Rodriguez was only able to land 20% of his total punches against him and Miguel Cotto was never able to set up his power shots according to plan. If Trout stays active (he has averaged 72.5 punches per round in his last 5 fights) utilizes his jab effectively, and throws quick combinations, he can negate the aggressive tendencies of Alvarez and win a decision much like he did against Cotto. For Saul Alvarez, who is a devastating puncher with incredible precision, he will want to pressure Trout, get in close and land combinations of his own. Against Josesito Lopez, Alvarez landed a staggering 52% of his total punches, and in 4 previous fights he averaged 40% landed, including 50.5% of his power shots (more than 13% higher than the junior middleweight average). While he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of punches per round (just under 50), Alvarez does an excellent job of seizing opportunities and never letting his opponents gain momentum. If you hit him, he will hit you back, and there is a good chance that his punches will do more damage. In addition, Alvarez is also anything but a one-dimensional slugger, and his “punches absorbed” numbers in recent fights (26% vs. Ryan Rhodes, 25% vs. Shane Mosley, and 14% vs. Kermit Cintron), all support the notion that he is more than just a crude knockout artist. If he can cut the ring off, apply consistent pressure, and get to Trout inside (the way Cotto did in the middle rounds) I think Alvarez could win by decision or late round TKO. Conclusion The outcome of this fight largely depends on the aggression, activity, and persistence of Alvarez. Trout is a very good fighter at range, and he was easily able to frustrate and discourage Miguel Cotto his last time out, and if he throws 75 punches a round and keeps moving, there is a chance a similar outcome could result this time; but I doubt it. I think Alvarez’s natural tendency to stalk and pursue will help him to close the distance, and his power, accuracy, and intestinal fortitude will enable him to navigate Trout’s jab and land the more telling blows of the fight. Alvarez has the rage of a young Mike Tyson and the disdain of a young Roberto Duran. Not to take anything away from Miguel Cotto, but at the age of 32, he simply was not willing to do “whatever was necessary” to get the win. I think Alvarez will be. Ultimately, this fight pits the power, aggression and accuracy of Alvarez against the hand speed, and activity of Trout. I think Trout is a the slicker of the two “boxing-wise,” but I hesitate to side against Alvarez in the “intangible” category (making the boxing ability category a push), and I think these two are equal in terms of conditioning, defense, and the ability to take a punch. That simply leaves the all important matter of who wants it more? In the end, I think Alvarez will do what Miguel Cotto couldn’t; he will effectively pressure Trout, he will cut the ring off, and he will fight like the motivated 22-year old that he is; because kids nowadays just don’t know any better. (Alvarez by decision: 115-113)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, Saul Alvarez-Austin Trout Preview, showtime boxing / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, Saul Alvarez-Austin Trout Preview, showtime boxing

Fight Predictions for March 24 to March 30

NCBoxingOnline / March 23, 2013 / No comments

Fight Predictions for March 24 to March 30
Mar 29, 2013	#14 Brian Vera 22-6 (13) vs. #137 Donatas Bondoravas 17-3-1 (6), 10 rounds, Middleweights	Verona, NY (ESPN2)
Middleweight Brian Vera, after “reinventing” himself with solid victories over Sergio Mora and Serhiy Dzinziruk, looks to carry that momentum forward this weekend as he takes on 17-3-1 Donatas Bondoravas on a Friday Night Fight installment from Verona, NY. Vera, now 31-years old, is 22-6 (13 KO’s) with a boxrec.com rating of #14, and he has not lost since dropping a ten round decision to Andy Lee back in October of 2011. He is an experienced, workmanlike fighter who can overwhelm with his activity, and even against more highly skilled boxers, his aggression, work ethic, and tendency to throw more meaningful punches, has earned him much success. In this fight, Vera is not facing a “highly skilled” boxer per se, but he is facing a rugged (enthusiastic?) puncher who likes to mix it up. In clips I have seen, Bondoravas does not appear to be the most technically sound fighter, but he does have decent hand speed and he can make a decent fight. My initial reaction to this fight was total indifference, but after having seen a bit of Bondoravas, I am at least a little more optimistic about the prospects of seeing an entertaining fight. I still think Vera will win, and probably quite easily, but I am now of the opinion that it will be worth seeing. Bondoravas is only rated 135^th according to boxrec.com, and he has subsisted mostly on mediocre, Chicago-area opposition, but he is a tough guy that’s only been stopped once, and I expect him to give a good showing in a losing effort. (Vera by decision: 97-93)
Mar 30, 2013	#4 Brandon Rios 31-0-1 (23) vs. #10 Mike Alvarado 33-1 (23), 12 rounds, WBO Interim Junior Welterweight Title	Las Vegas, NV
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
Mar 30, 2013	#3 Gennady Golovkin 25-0 (22) vs. #41 Nobuhiro Ishida 24-8-2 (9), 12 rounds, WBA Middleweight Title	Monte Carlo, Monaco (PPV)
Middleweight sensation Gennady Golovkin, AKA “Triple G” takes on veteran Japanese fighter Nobuhiro Ishida this Saturday night on a pay-per-view card from Monaco. Golovkin, 25-0 with 22 KO’s, is currently rated 3^rd according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of a thrilling, hard fought TKO win over 12^th rated Gabriel Rosado back in January of this year. A former 2004 Silver Medalist, Golovkin is a technically sound fighter with a good jab and a good straight right hand, and he uses the famed “shoulder roll” to counter effectively. Every time he fights he generates excitement, and his talent and punching power are quite a spectacle to behold. In this fight, Golovkin faces a tough challenger, Nobuhiro Ishida, who has never been knocked out in 34 professional fights. Ishida is 24-8-2 with 9 knockouts, he is currently rated 41^st, and he is perhaps best known for his shocking one round KO victory over 4^th rated James Kirkland back in April of 2011. DON’T EXPECT SIMILAR HEROICS THIS TIME AROUND. Ishida is an average puncher at best, he carries his hands low, he doesn’t move his head, and he has lost 3 of his last 5 fights. Most recently, Ishida was beaten handily by 9^th rated Dmitry Pirog (by scores of 117-111, 119-109, 120-108), and he has already alluded to a possible retirement should this fight end in another defeat. In the end, I expect a decent scrap, but Ishida’s defense is too porous, and his punching power has much to be desired. Therefore, I think Golovkin will dominate the action on the inside with powerful, accurate counters (he landed 40% of his power shots against Gregorz Proksa and 47% against Rosado), and force the referee to intervene somewhere between the 8^th and 10^th rounds. (Golovkin by late round TKO)
Mar 30, 2013	#12 Edwin Rodriguez 22-0 (15) vs. #13 Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna 19-0 (13), 10 rounds, Super Middleweights	Monte Carlo, Monaco (PPV)
Worcester, Massachusetts native Edwin Rodriguez looks to remain undefeated this weekend against fellow unbeaten prospect Ezequiel Osvaldo Maderna on the Golovkin-Ishida undercard from Monaco. Rodriguez is 22-0 with 15 knockouts, he is currently rated 12^th according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of an impressive TKO victory over 157^th rated Jason Escalera in September of last year. A National Golden Gloves titlist, Rodriguez is a slick-boxing counter puncher with good defense, a good jab, nice command of distance, and he holds wins over top 30 fighters Will Rosinsky and Donovan George. In this fight, Rodriguez is in with a talented 26-year old Argentinean with a record of 19-0 (13 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #13. Maderna has a good jab and decent hand speed, and he puts his punches together nicely, but he often falls in, and he has a tendency to throw his punches too wide. This is an interesting matchup. Physically, Maderna seems to have all the tools to win, but I think his lack of experience, his defense, and the fact that he has never fought outside of Argentina are three major factors working against him. I also think Rodriguez is better at making opponents miss, he has better foot movement, and he is the sharper of the two fighters. Therefore, in a “chess match-type” fight fought primarily at distance, I think the superior boxing skills of Rodriguez, along with his greater experience, will enable him to pull out a close victory on the scorecards. (Rodriguez by decision:116-112)
Mar 30, 2013	Zolt Erdei 33-0 (18) vs. #19 Denis Grachev 12-1-1 (8), 10 rounds, Light Heavyweights	Monte Carlo, Monaco (PPV)
Former 2-time Olympian and amateur standout Zsolt Erdei looks to remain undefeated as a professional this weekend in Monaco with a win over the hard-hitting, hard-headed Denis Grachev. Erdei, now 38 years old, is a perfect 33-0 with 18 KO’s, and while he has beaten some quality fighters (like Hugo Hernan Garay and Giacobbe Fragomeni), inactivity and poor opposition has caused him to fly under the radar for the majority of his 12-year career. He is a good offensive fighter with good hand speed, and he typically fights with a good sense of urgency, but his unwillingness to fight A-level competition has resulted in his absence from any of the current rankings, and despite fighting his last two fights in the U.S. (against unranked Samson Onyango and 132^nd rated Byron Mitchell), Erdei is still a virtual unknown to most American fight fans. Now, at age 38, he is running out of time to make a first impression. In this fight, Erdei faces 19^th rated Denis Grachev, a 30-year old former 2 time world kickboxing champion from Russia with a record of 12-1-1. Grachev is a hard-hitting, tough fighter (who looks like a cross between Matthew Hatton and the kid who played Russ in the first Vacation movie), and in his two most recent fights, he lost a tough decision to Lucian Bute and he registered a stunning KO victory over talented prospect Ismayl Sillakh. He is an aggressive, plodding fighter who stays relatively busy, hits hard, and can take a helluva punch. He cannot match Erdei in terms of speed, boxing ability or defense, but if he throws close to 60 punches a round (as he did against Sillakh), and applies constant pressure, he can create openings for himself as Erdei tries to keep up. This is a very interesting fight. Erdei has the greater overall experience, he is quicker, and he has the greater pedigree, but he hasn’t fought since June of 2011, and he has never truly been tested against the division’s elite. Grachev, on the other hand, doesn’t have the experience, speed, or skill of the former Bronze Medalist, but he has arguably fought the better opposition (in just 14 fights) and he gave Lucian Bute all he could handle his last time out. In addition, what he lacks in skill, he more than makes up for in consistency and heart. Therefore, in a close fight, I predict Erdei will out-box Grachev over the first half of the fight, but ultimately, the aggression, youth, and determination of the Russian will take its toll on the ageing, rusty, Hungarian, and Erdei will finally suffer his first defeat. (Grachev by late round TKO)
Mar 30, 2013	#1 Mario Rodriguez 15-6-4 (11) vs. #19 Katsunari Takayama 24-6 (10), 12 rounds, IBF Strawweight Title	Guasave, Mexico
Current IBF Strawweight champion Mario Rodriguez is a 24-year old from Mexico with a 15-6-4 record (11 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #1. Last September, Rodriguez took the title from the seemingly unbeatable Nkosinathi Joyi (#5) by way of a 7^th round KO, and in his first defense he (or rather the IBF) has chosen 19^th rated Katsunari Takayama of Japan as his opponent. Rodriguez is an experienced guy, who has faced and beaten a number of quality fighters (Nkosinathi Joyi and Gilberto Keb Bass first among them), and his only loss in his past 12 fights came against 7^th rated junior flyweight Donnie Nietes in August of 2010. In addition, he earned draws against 39^th rated Ivan Meneses and 11^th rated Pedro Guevara during that span. In this fight, Rodriguez faces Katsunari Takayama, a 29-year old from Japan with a record of 24-6 (10 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #19. Takayama is a little brawler who likes to mix it up, and he has been in with some of the best fighters in and around 105 pounds, including Roman Gonzalez, Nkosinathi Joyi, and Matteo Handig. Unfortunately, Takayama is a little wild, and despite his best efforts, he has come up short on virtually every occasion that he has stepped up in class. This time may be no exception. Takayama is an exciting fighter, who has never been stopped, but he may need a knockout to win in Mexico, and I don’t believe he has the power to do so. Therefore, in an exciting back-and-forth affair, I look for Rodriguez to retain his title by way of a close, hard fought decision. (Rodriguez by decision: 115-113)
Mar 30, 2013	#5 Tony Bellew 19-1 (12) vs. #9 Isaac Chilemba 20-1-1 (9), 12 rounds, WBC “Silver” Light Heavyweight Title	Liverpool, England
British light heavyweight contender Tony Bellew takes on the talented Isaac Chilemba this weekend for a chance at the WBC’s “silver” light heavyweight title in Liverpool. Bellew, 30-years old, is 19-1 with 12 KO’s, he is currently rated 5^th according to boxrec.com and he has won three fights in a row since losing a majority decision to 8^th rated Nathan Cleverly in October of 2011. He is a tall, aggressive, fighter with good hand speed, and he feints his way into some nice openings. In this fight, Bellew faces competent South African Isaac Chilemba, a 25-year old with a record of 20-1-1 (9 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #9. Chilemba is also a tall fighter with a good jab, a good sense of distance, and an aggressive nature, but he often comes in wild and inaccurate, and he carries his left hand low. Both fighters have been dropped in the past by right hands (Bellew against Ovril McKenzie (twice) and Chilemba against Maxim Vlasov (twice)), so attention to detail is very important in this one. The first one to get careless is likely to get dropped. Having said that, I think Chilemba is more of a free-swinger, who will attempt to end things early, and his over eagerness might be his downfall. Bellew, on the other hand, is the more refined puncher with greater power, and while he is vulnerable to the straight right hand, I think he will easily block/pick off the wider shots of Chilemba. In the end, I expect an entertaining fight between these two. Chilemba has not lost in more than 5 years (13 fights) and he recently fought 5^th rated super middleweight Thomas Oosthuizen to a draw, but 9 of his last 10 fights have gone the distance, and I don’t see him winning a decision in England. Therefore, I predict Bellew will survive an early knockdown, and with the support of the hometown fans, fight his way to a much deserved decision victory. (Bellew by decision: 116-112)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, brandon rios mike alvarado II, brian vera donatas bondoravas, edwin rodriguez ezequiel osvaldo maderna, ESPN boxing, Fight Predictions for March 24 to March 30, friday night fights, gennady golovkin nobuhiro ishida, isaac chilemba, mario rodriguez katsunari takayama, Uncategorized, zsolt erdei denis grachev / Tags: boxing, boxing news, boxing predictions, brandon rios mike alvarado II, brian vera donatas bondoravas, edwin rodriguez ezequiel osvaldo maderna, ESPN boxing, Fight Predictions for March 24 to March 30, friday night fights, gennady golovkin nobuhiro ishida, isaac chilemba, mario rodriguez katsunari takayama, tony bellew, zsolt erdei denis grachev

Fight Predictions for March 17 to March 23

NCBoxingOnline / March 17, 2013 / No comments

Fight Predictions for March 17 to March 23
Mar 21, 2013	#22 Billy Joe Saunders 16-0 (10) vs. #118 Matthew Hall 25-6 (16), 12 rounds, British and Commonwealth Middleweight Titles	London, England
Billy Joe Saunders, a 2000 British Olympian, is 23-years old with a 16-0 record and a boxrec.com rating of #22. He is an aggressive southpaw with good hand speed, and he uses pressure effectively to get inside and land combinations. In his last 3 fights, Saunders disposed of 130^th ranked Bradley Pryce, 41^st ranked Jarrod Fletcher, and 71^st ranked Nick Blackwell, and in this fight he takes on 28-year old Manchester native Matthew Hall. Hall, a former Commonwealth junior middleweight titlist, is 25-6 with 16 KO’s, he is currently rated 118^th according to boxrec.com, and after winning 23 of his first 24 fights, he has since lost 5 of his last 8 and 4 of his last 6. Hall is a strong, physical fighter with good hand speed, but Saunders is a very sharp, active puncher who can fight well going forward as well as backwards. I think Hall can be competitive in this fight if he makes it physical on the inside, but I predict that Saunders will out-pace and out-land Hall, en route to winning a comfortable unanimous decision. (Saunders by decision: 117-111)
Mar 22, 2013	#21 Donovan George 24-3-1 (21) vs. #26 David Alonso Lopez 41-13 (23), 10 rounds, Middleweights	Chicago, IL (ESPN2)
On this weeks’ installment of Friday Night Fights, hard hitting Chicago native Donovan George takes on veteran David Lopez from the IUC Pavillion in Chicago, Illiinois. George, 24-3-1 with 21 KO’s, is an accomplished, tough fighter, who has been in with some of the world’s best super middleweights (including Adonis Stevenson, Edwin Rodriguez, and Osumanu Adama), and this week he drops down to 160 to face 35-year old southpaw David Lopez. Lopez, 41-13 with 23 KO’s, has a boxrec.com rating of #26, and his only loss in the past 8 years (18 fights) was a decision nod to Austin Trout back in June of 2011 (a fight in which he managed to stagger the champion in the 11^th round). Lopez is an aggressive, slightly crude fighter who likes to mix it up, and the mix of styles in this fight should make for a very entertaining night of boxing. George has had problems with slick boxing types like Stevenson and Rodriguez in the past, but in Lopez, he has an opponent that will willingly stand and trade at close quarters for as long as it lasts. If that does indeed end up being the case, I think George has the definite advantage based on his proven chin and abundant power. He has never been knocked out, and his career KO rate stands at 75%, while Lopez on the other hand, has been stopped 9 times, and has only recorded 2 stoppage victories in his last 9 fights. Therefore, in a competitive fight, I think George lands the bigger shots, takes the bigger shots better, and wins by way of a late round TKO. (George by 8^th round TKO)
Mar 22, 2013	#5 Adonis Stevenson 19-1 (16) vs. #105 Darnell Boone 19-20-3 (8), 10 rounds, Super Middleweights	Montreal, CAN (Wealth TV)
Canadian super middleweight Adonis Stevenson looks to gain some much needed redemption with a rematch win over 105^th ranked Darnell Boone this Friday in Montreal. Boone scored a shocking TKO victory over Stevenson in April of 2010, and since then Stevenson has won 6 fights in a row, while Boone has managed just 2 wins in his past 8 fights. Currently, Stevenson is 19-1 with 16 knockouts, he is rated 5^th in the world, and he has looked impressive in recent wins over Don George (#22), Noe Alcoba (#35), and Jesus Gonzalez. He is a big, strong, athletic fighter with good hand speed, power, and aggression, and if he has an exceptional right hand, as evidenced by his KO victory over Jesus Gonzalez: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGX3_1I944w).I can’t see this one going much past the first few rounds. Boone caught Stevenson with a beautifully timed right hand in their first fight, but the only beautiful thing Boone will be experiencing this time around will be the stars circling his head as he lies prone on the canvas. (Stevenson by 2^nd round KO)
Mar 22, 2013	Joseph Agbeko 28-4 (22) vs. #94 Luis Melendez 34-8-1 (25), 12 rounds, Bantamweights	Accra, Ghana
Former world titlist Joseph Agbeko returns to the ring this Friday after a 15- month layoff to take on the lightly regarded Luis Melendez in the former’s hometown of Accra Ghana. Agbeko, who hasn’t fought since his decision loss to Abner Mares in December of 2011, and hasn’t won a fight since December of 2010 (a decision over Yohnny Perez), is anxious to get back to his winning ways at the familiar confines of home. Agbeko, soon to be 33-years of age, is 28-4 with 22 knockouts, and despite being virtually unranked by ANY major sanctioning body, he is still a “near elite” at 118 pounds, and he should have little problem advancing past his Columbian opponent. Luis Melendez is an experienced southpaw with a record of 34-8-1 (25 KO’s), and a boxrec.com rating of #94. Between 2007 and 2010 Melendez lost 5 of 7 fights, however, since then he has won 8 of 10 against very modest opposition, with his most high profile loss coming in a lopsided decision against 13^th ranked junior featherweight Alexander Bakhtin back in November of 2011. Melendez has a decent jab, he covers well, and he moves well, but offensively he is way overmatched against Agbeko, and I dare to say that we have not heard the last of “King Kong” Agbeko. (Agbeko by 5^th round TKO)
Mar 22, 2013	#9 Odlanier Solis 18-1 (12) vs. #48 Leif Larsen 17-0 (14), 12 rounds, Heavyweights	Berlin, Germany
Former Cuban amateur sensation Odlanier Solis found out the hard way just how difficult the professional ranks can be after suffering his first knockout loss at the hands of Vitali Klitschko in March of 2011. Solis had to have knee surgery as a result of his awkward trip to the canvas, and was sidelined for nearly 14 months recuperating from the injury. Since then, he won a wide decision over (then 24^th ranked) Konstantin Airich, and now he travels back to Germany to face Norwegian native and former American football veteran, Leif Larsen. Larsen, AKA “The Viking,” is 17-0 with 14 knockouts, he is currently rated 48^th according to boxrec.com, and he has registered stoppages in his last 6 fights in a row. He is a big strong guy (weighing upwards of 260, and standing 6’4”) and he has good power, but he is a bit lumbering and he tends to wing shots with little concern for what is coming back at him. Against Danny Williams and Jason Gavern that may fly, but against a former Olympic Gold Medalist with more than 220 amateur victories, I think Larsen’s deficiencies will be highlighted and capitalized on. Solis’ professional career has been a bit of a disappointment up to this point, but given the fact that he beat such notables as David Haye, Alexander Alekseev, Kubrat Pulev, and Felix Savon as an amateur, there is still much to like about his future chances, particular in this fight. (Solis by ugly decision: 117-111)
Mar 23, 2013	#4 Arthur Abraham 36-3 (28) vs. #8 Robert Stieglitz 43-3 (24), 12 rounds, WBO Super Middleweight Title	Magdeburg, Germany (Epix)
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
Mar 23, 2013	#15 Jeffrey Mathebula 26-4-2 (14) vs. #26 Takalani Ndlovu 33-8 (18), 12 rounds, IBF Junior Featherweight Eliminator	Johannesburg, South Africa
Former rivals Jeffrey Mathebula and Takalani Ndlovu take to the ring for the third time this Saturday in Johannesburg, with each one looking to take the lead in the series. Ndlovu won a split decision in September of 2010, and Mathebula won the rematch with a split decision victory 18 months later. Since then, Mathebula has gone 0-1, losing to Nonito Donaire in July of last year, while Ndlovu lost a unanimous decision to 14^th ranked Alejandro Lopez last October. Currently, Jeffrey Mathebula, now 33 years old, is 26-4-2 with 14 KO’s and is rated 15^th according to boxrec.com. He is an all-action, high volume fighter with a long reach, a good jab, and good movement, and he fought an excellent fight against Donaire, out-landing him 231-151 and out-throwing him 919-515. If he can keep a tight guard, work the jab, stay active, and circle the ring, he can keep Ndlovu off balance and incapable of setting down on his punches. Unfortunately, Mathebula has a tendency to tire (as he did against Celestino Caballero) and he may once again find himself standing right in front of Ndlovu and trading big shots, where his wider, winging shots are likely to be less effective. Takalani Ndlovu, on the other hand, is 34-years old, he is 33-8 with 18 knockouts, and he is rated #26 according to boxrec.com. He is an aggressive, sharp punching fighter, who relies on pressure, and if he can get inside and work the body he can take away Mathebula’s strengths. In the end, I think Mathebula can win this if he avoids the exchanges and actively boxes from the outside. While he is a slugger trapped in a boxer’s body, I think he fought exceptionally well against Donaire (and may have even been leading the fight late, before suffering a cracked tooth in the 11^th round), and I think he is capable of doing the same in this fight. I think it will be another close fight, but ultimately I think Mathebula will use his range and activity to go one up in the trilogy. (Mathebula by unanimous decision: 116-112)
Mar 23, 2013	#11 Marco Antonio Rubio 56-6-1 (49) vs. #45 Marcus Upshaw 15-8-2 (7), 12 rounds, Middleweights	Mexico
Marco Antonio Rubio returns to the ring this Saturday to take on Florida native Marcus Upshaw in Mexico for the “WBC Continental Americas Middleweight Title.” Rubio has won 3 fights in a row since losing to Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. in February of 2012, and he is looking to gradually work his way back into the major world title picture. Rubio, 56-6-1 with 49 knockouts, is currently rated 11^thand despite losing to Chavez, he is still a top guy at 160 pounds. In this fight, he faces a 32-year old, 6’3” middleweight with a modest record and decent skills. Upshaw has been in with some quality opponents, and he does hold wins over 65^th rated Vladine Biosse and 42^nd rated Renan St. Juste, but he has only won 2 of his last 7 fights and recently when he stepped up in class he was decisively beaten. In this fight, I think Rubio will have difficulty getting inside the long arms of Upshaw (particularly over the first few rounds), but when he does, I think his power punching and physical style will make the difference. Rubio has a career KO rate of 78% to Upshaw’s 27%. When this fight goes inside, which it will, Rubio will have a distinct advantage. Therefore, despite a close fight early, I think too much experience and power from Rubio means another loss for Upshaw. (Rubio by 7^th round TKO)

Category: adonis stevenson darnell boone preview, arthur abraham robert stieglitz preview, billy joe saunders matthew hall preview, boxing, boxing predictions, donovan george david lopez preview, ESPN boxing, Fight Predictions for March 17 to March 23, friday night fights, jeffrey mathebula takalani ndlovu preview, joseph agbeko luis melendez preview, marco antonio rubio marcus upshaw preview, odlanier solis leif larsen preview, Uncategorized / Tags: adonis stevenson darnell boone preview, arthur abraham robert stieglitz preview, billy joe saunders matthew hall preview, boxing, boxing predictions, donovan george david lopez preview, ESPN boxing, Fight Predictions for March 17 to March 23, friday night fights, jeffrey mathebula takalani ndlovu preview, joseph agbeko luis melendez preview, marco antonio rubio marcus upshaw preview, odlanier solis leif larsen preview

Timothy Bradley-Ruslan Provodnikov Preview

NCBoxingOnline / March 10, 2013 / No comments

Timothy Bradley vs. Ruslan Provodnikov (WBO Welterweight Title) *12 Rounds, Carson, CA, March 16, 2013 (HBO)*
This Saturday night on HBO, Timothy Bradley defends his “controversially acquired” WBO welterweight title against hard-hitting Russian Ruslan Provodnikov in Carson, California. Bradley, a 29-year old from Palm Springs, has a record of 29-0 (12 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #3. He is a former junior welterweight world champion with wins over Kendall Holt (#28), Lamont Peterson (#1), Carlos Abregu (#19), and Devon Alexander (#6), and in June of last year he claimed the WBO welterweight title from the legendary pound-for-pound great Manny Pacquiao. In this fight, Bradley faces Ruslan Provodnikov, a 29-year old, with a record of 22-1 (15 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #46. Provodnikov, a regular on ESPN’s Friday Night Fights over the past few years, is an aggressive guy who doesn’t mind being hit, and he is routinely involved in entertaining scraps. Now, under the tutelage of hall of fame trainer Freddie Roach, Provodnikov appears confident that his first world title fight will end in success: “This is a fight that gives me a chance to change my life, and if I didn’t think I’d win this fight, I wouldn’t be a boxer,” said Provodnikov. “I’m going to use my power to the full, that’s the plan; and once I hit him, my punches will be stronger and stronger.” So tune in to HBO this Saturday night at 10:15 PM EST to see if Ruslan Provodnikov has what it takes to dethrone WBO welterweight champion Timothy “Desert Storm” Bradley, or if the current champion will have an easy go of things (as predicted) in his first title defense.
Timothy Bradley 29-0 (12)		Ruslan Provodnikov 22-1 (15)
A-	Boxing Ability & Intangibles	B
A	Hand Speed	B
A-	Opposition & Experience	C+
B	Defense	B
D	Power	B+
B-	Punch Output	A-
A	Chin	A
B-	Punch Accuracy	B+
A+	Conditioning	A
A	Aggression	A-
The Break Down Timothy Bradley is an exceptionally strong and physical fighter with good hand speed and an aggressive style. In his 5 fights prior to his June 2012 bout with Manny Pacquiao, Bradley’s Compubox numbers indicated that he threw slightly more punches per round than the average welterweight (61.4), and he landed at a rate that was also better than average (33.7%). Unfortunately (or fortunately given how the fight turned out), Bradley only landed 19% of his total punches against Pacquiao, (28% of his power shots), and he was hit, in return, 34% of the time (6 percentage points over his typical “punches absorbed” rate of 28%). In other words, despite the fact that it was one of his worst efforts statistically, he still managed to land enough timely counter shots to sway the judges. In this fight, I think Bradley will fight in a similar manner out of respect for Provodnikov’s power, and as a result, I think the fight could be closer than what many are predicting. For Ruslan Provodnikov, who is an aggressive, hard-nosed brawler with good power, he must work at a high rate and smother Bradley to prevent him from leaping in and out with quick leads. Provodnikov traditionally throws around 70-75 punches a round, and he is usually accurate to the tune of about 35%-38%. If he can throw at that rate and land accordingly, he has the ability to make this fight quite interesting. According to Freddie Roach, “If he (Bradley) wants to box us, we’re going to cut the ring off, make it a lot smaller, and set traps. If he wants to fight us, I welcome that. We’re working on punching with him, trading with him, and catching him in the middle- I definitely have the better puncher of the two.” Conclusion The outcome of this fight depends largely on Bradley’s ability to work at distance and jump in and out with right hand leads and combinations. He is an aggressive, physically strong fighter with tremendous will, and if he can move in and out and frustrate Provodnikov with his hand speed, I think he will win by a comfortable margin. However, Providnikov is a physical, active fighter in his own right, who hits harder and punches with better accuracy. The question is whether Provodikov will be successful landing at his past levels against a fighter with good footwork, head movement and a crouching style. Personally, I think Provodnikov will come out aggressive, be out-boxed for the first few rounds, then turn up the pace (due to some urging from Freddie Roach), and when he does Bradley will catch more easily coming in. Then, at some point past the halfway mark, I think the fight will slow and Provodnikov will simply look to survive. In other words, a close fight through 3-4 rounds, with a good effort from the challenger, but after 12 rounds I think Provodnikov’s face and hopes will be pretty well busted. (Bradley by decision: 118-110)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, HBO boxing, timothy bradley ruslan provodnikov preview, Uncategorized / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, HBO boxing, timothy bradley ruslan provodnikov preview

Fight Predictions for March 10 to March 16

NCBoxingOnline / March 10, 2013 / 12 comments

Fight Predictions for March 10 to March 15
Mar 16, 2013	#3 Timothy Bradley Jr. 29-0 (12) vs. #24 Ruslan Provodnikov 22-1 (15), 12 rounds, WBO Welterweight Title	Carson, CA (HBO)
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
Mar 16, 2013	#17 Jessie Vargas 21-0 (9) vs. #32 Wale Omotosu 23-0 (19), 10 rounds, Welterweights	Carson, CA (HBO)
Undefeated welterweight contender Jessie Vargas returns to the ring this Saturday night to take on fellow unbeaten Australian (by way of Nigeria) Wale Omotosu. Since his workmanlike victory over veteran Steve Forbes back in May of last year, Vargas has recorded victories over 111^th rated Aaron Martinez and 224^th rated Vito Gasparyan; two fighters hardly worth the time of a top 20 fighter. In this fight, Vargas faces 32^nd ranked Wale Omotosu, a talented but inexperienced fighter with a record of 23-0 (19 KO’s). Omotosu is quick, he is strong, he moves his head well, and he has a nice chopping right hand. In fact, he reminds me of a lighter, faster version of middleweight champion Peter Quillin. The problem is, he hasn’t fought anyone near the caliber of Vargas, and in recent outings he has not looked quite as dominant as he should have given the level of opposition. However, if he can stay on his toes, snap the jab, and keep away from pitched battles, I think he has a good chance of winning this fight. Omotosu is quick enough to win this one on the outside, so Vargas must stay on him for 10 solid rounds and keep his punch output in the 70-80 range per round. Ultimately, the question is whether Omotosu can keep Vargas off of him and utilize his quick-strike ability. Vargas works wells behind the jab himself, and in recent fights he has shown great accuracy (landing 45% of his power shots versus Aaron Martinez), so if he can work his way in behind the jab, he should be able to successfully set up his power shots. In the end, I think Omotusu will be a difficult opponent for Vargas, but I think his lack of big fight experience will ultimately be his undoing, and I think the pressure and determination of Vargas will help him pull out a close win on the scorecards. (Vargas by decision: 97-93)
Mar 16, 2013	#34 Pablo Cesar Cano 25-2-1 (19) vs. #97 Manuel Perez 19-8-1 (4), 10 rounds, Junior Welterweights	Cancun, Mexico (FSN)
The always tough Pablo Cesar Cano returns to the ring this Saturday for the first time since his split decision loss to Paulie Malignaggi back in October of last year. Cano, still just 23-years of age, is perhaps best known for fighting a brave (but losing) effort against Erik Morales back in September of last year; but since then he has won 3 of 4, including a decision win over 42^nd ranked Johan Perez for the WBA interim world title. Cano is a good pressure fighter with good offensive skills and power, and he is capable of absorbing a tremendous amount of punishment. In this fight, Cano is in with Denver native Manual Perez, a 28-year old with a record of 19-8-1 and a boxrec.com rating of #97. Perez has lost 4 of his last 9; however, he has been in with excellent opposition, and in October of 2008 he fought 4^th rated junior welterweight Brandon Rios to a draw. Perez is a patient, stalking puncher with good hand speed, and he has only been stopped once in his career (against Brandon Rios 9 fights ago). I think this will be a good fight. Both guys like to work inside, and they are both okay with taking 2 to land 1. Of course if both fighters employ this strategy the math doesn’t add up, and someone will have to benefit from the free-swinging nature of the fight. That fighter, in my opinion, will be Pablo Cesar Cano. He is slightly more accomplished, he can box or bang, and he has considerable more power. Therefore, in an entertaining back and forth battle, I pick Cano to win by a late round TKO stoppage. (Cano by 8^th round TKO)
Mar 16, 2013	#4 Johnriel Casimero 17-2 (10) vs. #15 Luis Alberto Rios 18-1-1 (13), 12 rounds, IBF Junior Flyweight Title	Panama City, Panama
Johnriel Casimero, the current IBF Junior Flyweight Champion, is a 23-year old from the Philippines with a 17-2 record and a boxrec.com rating of #4. He was infamously involved in the fight with Luis Lazarte in February of 2012 that involved 3 point deductions, 3 knockdowns, and a riot afterwards when Casimero won by TKO. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmS-1dl3HOM). In that fight, Casimero proved that he was way too fast for Lazarte, and way too slick defensively. He has excellent footwork, and he uses it to move in quickly, punch, and get out. His opponent in this fight is 15^th ranked Luis Alberto Rios, a 23-year old Panamanian with a record of 18-1-1 (13 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #15. Rios has good range, a good jab, an exceptional straight right hand, and in his last fight he registered an impressive knockout over 53^rd rated Felipe Salguero. If Rios can pressure Casimero and keep him in range, I think he will do well. Casimero is a mobile, fleet-footed fighter with good defense, but if Rios stays active (the way Ramon Garcia Hirales did in his split decision win over Casimero back in July of 2010), then I think the hometown fighter could come away with a “generous” decision. In the end, however, I think Casimero’s quickness and awkwardness will pose problems for Rios, who spends a lot of time trying to set up big shots. Casimero leaps in, throws combinations ala “Manny Pacquiao” and then he retreats quickly. If he can keep Rios off balance, I think he will escape with a close decision victory. (Casimero by decision 116-112)
Mar 16, 2013	#14 Alberto Rossel 29-8 (13) vs. #57 Walter Tello 18-6 (7), 12 rounds, WBA Interim Junior Flyweight Title	Ica, Peru
Alberto Rossel is a 5 foot 2 inch light flyweight from Peru with a record of 29-8 (13), and a boxrec.com rating of #15. Rossel won the interim version of the WBA title in April of last year with a decision win over 42^nd rated Jose Alfredo Rodriguez, and since then he has defended the title one time (a lopsided decision over 63^rd rated Karluis Diaz). He uses good lateral movement, he boxes well from the outside, and he is quick enough to score with an occasional 1-2 and get out. In this fight he faces Walter Tello, a 26-year old Panamanian with a record of 18-6 (7 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #56. While Tello has fought some very good opposition (like Giovanni Segura and Luis Alberto Rios) he has lost 4 of his last 9 fights, with 2 of those losses coming against unranked Carlos Melo. Against Rossel, Tello will be facing an aggressive, experienced fighter who has won 5 fights in a row and 11 out of his last 12 (his only loss during that period was a stoppage loss to Hugo Cazares back in October of 2010). In this fight, I don’t see Tello’s power being a big factor (he only has a 29% career KO rate), and in Peru, I think Rossel is a safe bet to win inside the distance (Rossel by 7^th round KO)
Mar 16, 2013	#26 Alisher Rahimov 25-1 (12) vs. #5 Denis Shafikov 31-0-1 (17), 10 rounds, Lightweights	Noginsik, Russia
Alisher Rahimov is a 34-year old, former 2000 Uzbekistan Olympian, who currently holds a #26 ranking according to boxrec.com. He is 25-1 with 12 knockouts, and while still relatively inexperienced, has shown great promise since making his pro debut in 2004, taking a split decision over #16 rated Sergio Thompson in September of 2010. Unfortunately, in May of last year he was decidedly beaten by free-swinging Ji-Hoon Kim, and since then he has won 2 fights in a row against very modest opposition. In this fight, Rahimov faces fellow Russian Denis Shafikov, a 27-year old, sharp-shooting Russian with a 31-0-1 record, and a boxrec.com rating of #5. The only blemish on Shafikov’s ledger came in October of 2010 when he fought Brunet Zamora to a majority decision draw, and since then he has won six fights in a row (3 by way of stoppage). Shafikov has good balance, he has a good jab, he moves his head well, and he packs a decent punch. This is an interesting matchup. Rahimov covers well, he provides little room to land, and he puts his punches together quickly and effectively on offense, but sometimes he will lull you to sleep, and he is often out-worked (as was the case against Kim). In all, I think Rahimov will press forward and be the aggressor in the fight, but I think Shafikov is a little too quick and a little too slick, and I think he is capable of boxing Rahimov on the outside and frustrating him en route to a clear decision win. (Shafikov by decision: 97-93)
Mar 16, 2013	#UNR Osumanu Adama 20-3 (15) vs. #32 Grady Brewer 30-14 (16), 10 rounds, Middleweights	Lowell, MA
Former world title contender Osumanu Adama returns to the ring this weekend after a year-long layoff to take on 42-year old veteran Grady Brewer in Lowell, Massachusetts. Adama is 20-3 with 15 knockouts, and in his last outing he lost a lopsided decision to IBF champion Daniel Geale. Adama is quick, he stays busy, and he likes to fight coming forward (as he proved against Geale). Unfortunately, Adama was out-gunned by the more precise Geale, and he was unable to connect with the harder, cleaner shots. Against Brewer, who is no Geale, Adama can be effective applying pressure this time around, and I think his hand speed will win out on the inside against the free-swing Brewer. In Brewer’s last fight against Giorbis Barthelemy (a fight that Brewer won by disqualification after Barthelemy bit him on the neck), Brewer was knocked down and behind on points through 4 rounds. In that fight, Brewer looked his age as he swung away futilely with little power, and failed to utilize his jab to any effective degree. In this fight I look for a similar outcome, with Adama doing enough to steal rounds with his speed and power, and excluding any “vampire tactics” on his part, I think he wins this one comfortably. (Adama by decision: 98-92)

Category: alberto rossel walter tello, alisher rahimov denis shafikov, boxing, boxing predictions, boxing predictions march 10 to march 16, HBO boxing, jessie vargas wale omotosu, john riel casimero luis alberto rios, osumanu adama grady brewer, pablo cesar cano manuel perez, timothy bradley ruslan provodnikov, Uncategorized / Tags: alberto rossel walter tello, alisher rahimov denis shafikov, boxing, boxing predictions, boxing predictions march 10 to march 16, HBO boxing, jessie vargas wale omotosu, john riel casimero luis alberto rios, osumanu adama grady brewer, pablo cesar cano manuel perez, timothy bradley ruslan provodnikov

Fight Predictions for February 24 to March 2

NCBoxingOnline / February 23, 2013 / No comments

Fight Predictions for February 24 to March 2
Feb 27, 2013	#13 Juan Carlos Reveco 29-1 (16) vs. #10 Masayuki Kuroda 21-3-2 (13), 12 rounds, WBA “regular” Flyweight Title	Kawasaki City, Japan
Former junior flyweight champion, and current WBA “interim” champion, Juan Carlos Reveco heads to Japan this Tuesday to take on 10^th rated Masayuki Kuroda for a chance at the “regular” version of the title. Reveco is a 29-year old from Argentina with a record of 29-1 (16 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #13. He is a compact fighter with a solid defense and a sweeping left hook, and his last 3 victories came against fighters currently rated 54^th, 38^th, and 33^rd. In this fight he faces a very accomplished 26-year old Japanese fighter with a record of 21-3-2, and 13 wins coming by way of knockout. Kuroda, an active fighter with a good jab and excellent hand speed, has not lost since January of 2009 (a period of 11 fights), and in his last 2 fights he drew with 18^th ranked Toshimasa Ouchi and 7^thrated Ryoichi Taguchi.This should be an interesting fight. Both fighters are tough as nails (never been stopped) and both are motivated to get their hands on the “legitimate” version of the WBA title. I think Reveco will do much of the pursuing in this fight, but I think Kuroda will punch at a steadier rate and use his hand speed to get off combinations and get out of the way. Therefore, in a fight that will likely go to the scorecards, I think the hometown fighter with the flashier skills and higher work rate will come away with his first world title. (Kuroda by unanimous decision: 116-112)
Mar 1, 2013	#4 Billy Dib 35-1 (21) vs. #35 Evgeny Gradovich 15-0 (8), 12 rounds, IBF Featherweight Title	Mashantucket, CT (ESPN2)
Billy “the Kid” Dib, one of the more enigmatic figures in the sport today, finally gets another opportunity to prove himself to American fans when he defends his IBF featherweight title in Mashantucket, Connecticut this Friday on Friday Night Fights. Dib is a 27-year old Australian with a record of 35-1 (21 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #4. In July of 2011, he won the title with a decision over (now 50^thranked) Jorge Lacierva, and he has defended his title successfully 2 times since. Unfortunately, Dib has not fought outside of Australia since October of 2008 (when he lost a 12-round decision to Steve Luevano), so a fight on the road against a very talented young Russian could be a tough task. His opponent, Evgeny Gradovich, is an undefeated 26-year old, known as the “Mexican-Russian” for his action style. He was a very accomplished amateur, fighting more than 300 times in his pre-professional days, and in clips I have seen, he has the European style that you would come to expect, but he employs a little more movement rather than simply choosing to catch punches like many of the other stand up fighters. This is a VERY interesting matchup, pitting the aggression and combativeness of Gradovich, with the polished, counter-punching skills of the veteran champion. Dib has certainly been in with the better opposition in his 8 and a half year career, but Gradovich is a fundamentally sound fighter with a lot of potential, and he is currently being trained by “Midas-Man” Robert Garcia. In this fight, I think Gradovich will come out stalking and throwing wide punches from too far out, and Dib, being the excellent defensive fighter that he is, should have little trouble avoiding the brunt of Gradovich’s blows. Dib mixes up his attack well, he moves in and out effectively, and he has looked better than ever in the last few times I have seen him. Therefore, while I think Gradovich is a good prospect, I think the experience, the elusiveness, and the hand speed of Dib will be the main factors in his winning a comfortable 12-round decision. (Dib by decision: 117-111)
Mar 1, 2013	#28 Omar Soto 23-9-2 (15) vs. #54 Julian Rivera 12-7-1 (2), 12 rounds, Flyweights	Mexico City, Mexico (Telemundo)
Omar Soto is an experienced, 33-year old Mexican featherweight with a record of 23-9-1 (15 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #28. He is a slightly one-dimensional fighter, but he does have good power and decent hand speed, and the majority of his losses have come against the very best at 108 and 112 lbs. In fact, since October of 2008, Soto’s only losses came at the hands of 4^th ranked junior bantamweight Omar Narvaez, 52^nd rated junior featherweight Cesar Seda, 1^st rated flyweight Brian Viloria, and 1^strated junior flyweight Roman Gonzalez. In this fight, Soto faces 54^th rated Julian Rivera, a fellow Mexican with a record of 12-7-1 including 2 knockouts. Rivera’s most notable win to date was over 101^st rated Edgar Jimenez, and in his last fight he lost a lopsided decision to 14^th rated Juan Carlos Reveco in Argentina. Rivera is a tough fighter, and a good body puncher, but I think he will be at a big disadvantage in terms of hand speed and aggression in this one. Soto is a plodding type of fighter who looks to land big shots on the inside, and while he is not the most technically sound fighter I have ever seen, his style can be effective (particularly against those fighters that exist outside of the top tier). In the end, I look for Rivera to fight this one at close quarters, and I look for Soto to capitalize on that mistake. (Soto by 6^th round KO)
Mar 2, 2013	#6 Richard Abril 17-3-1 (8) vs. #19 Sharif Bogere 23-0 (15), 12 rounds, WBA Lightweight Title	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
Mar 2, 2013	#25 Gary Russell Jr. 21-0 (13) vs. #82 Vyacheslav Gusev 20-2 (5), 10 rounds, Featherweights	Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)
Gary Russell Jr., AKA “Mr. Highlight Reel,” is looking to capitalize once again on some primetime exposure as he travels to Las Vegas to take on 82^nd rated Russian Vyacheslav Gusev this Saturday on Showtime. Russell Jr., a former U.S. Olympian, is 21-0 with 13 KO’s, he is currently rated 25^thaccording to boxrec.com, and his impressive collection of knockout victories has made him one of the most talked about prospects in the sport today. He is lightening fast, accurate, powerful, and in 21 professional fights his dominance has been so blatantly obvious that he has scarcely lost a single round. He was chosen as ESPN’s Prospect of the Year in 2011, and at this stage of his career, there are few fighters out there as highly touted as he is. In this fight, Russell faces 27-year old Vyacheslav Gusev, a Russian with a record of 20-2 (15 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #82. Gusev has won 4 fights in a row (against modest opposition) since losing to Juan Carlos Burgos back in June of 2009, and in this fight (only his second fight overseas), he hopes an upset is in order. Unfortunately, there is nothing “modest” about Gary Russell Jr. He is a fast, aggressive, power punching dynamo whose fights last, on average, about 3 and a half rounds per contest. It wouldn’t surprise me if Gusev made it past that, but I still think he’s out before the midway point. (Russell Jr. by 5^th round TKO)
Mar 2, 2013	#5 Donnie Nietes 31-1-3 (17) vs. #7 Moises Fuentes 16-1 (8), 12 rounds, WBO Junior Flyweight Title	Manila, Philippines
Donnie Nietes, the current WBO junior flyweight champion, is 31-1-3 with 17 knockouts, he is rated #5 according to boxrec.com, and he has not lost since September of 2004 (a period of 22 fights), when he dropped a split decision to Angky Angkota. Nietes has good hand speed, a good jab and solid defense (which consists primarily of covering up, not slipping or running), and he has recently registered victories over 19^th rated Ramon Hirales, and 55^th Felipe Salguero. In this fight, Nietes faces Moises Fuentes, a tough, 27-year old with good power, a 4” height advantage, and an aggressive style. Fuentes is 16-1 with 8 knockouts, he is currently rated 5^th according to boxrec.com, and in his most recent outings he beat 10^th rated Raul Garcia, 37^thrated Julio Cesar Felix, and legendary 2-division champion Ivan Calderon. Fuentes has a good jab and a good right hand, but he often waits to throw, and he often drops the right hand after he throws it. Against Nietes, who will be coming forward trying to close the distance, Fuentes could get caught if he is not careful.This is a difficult fight to predict. Neither Nietes nor Fuentes has ever been knocked out, and while Fuentes is arguably the bigger puncher, I don’t think he will be active enough, or fast enough to catch Nietes through his peek-a-boo defense and score a KO victory. Therefore, if the fight goes to the scorecards I think Nietes’ more pleasing style, and the fact that he is fighting at home, will contribute to his winning a close, but justified decision. (Nietes by decision: 115-113)
Mar 2, 2013	#8 Pungluang Sor Singyu 43-1 (28) vs. #17 Paulus Ambunda 19-0 (10), 12 rounds, WBO Bantamweight Title	Windhoek, Namibia
Pungluang Sor Singyu, the current WBO bantamweight titlist, is a 24-year old from Thailand with a record of 43-1 (28 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #8. In his last fight, Singyu went to the Philippines and stopped 25^thrated A.J. Banal to win the vacant WBO crown, and in this fight he travels to Namibia to take on undefeated Paulus Ambundu, a tough 32-year old with a record of 19-0 (10 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #17. Ambunda is an action-oriented fighter with a tremendous offense and a mediocre defense, and in this fight, the WBO belt will likely go home with the last person standing. I expect a shootout in this one, with Ambunda (arguably the quicker of the two), shooting combinations and working in and out, and Singyu stalking and landing the bigger, heavier shots. In the end, I think Singyu, as the more experienced fighter, will have an advantage, and his recent performance against a quick, talented southpaw (A.J. Banal) may be the best indication of how capable he is of dealing with an offensive minded foe such as Ambunda. Therefore, in a thrilling, back and forth affair, I predict that Singyu will once again go into enemy territory and come away with the win. (Singyu by decision: 115-113)
Mar 2, 2013	#8 Chris van Heerden 18-1-1 (10) vs. #37 Matthew Hatton 43-6-2 (17), 12 rounds, IBO Welterweight Title	Johannesburg, South Africa
8^th ranked Chris van Heerden, a 25-year old from South Africa with a record of 18-1-1 (10 KO’s) takes on veteran challenger Matthew Hatton this weekend in Johannesburg. Van Heerden is a stationary southpaw who covers well, and throws a good right hook and uppercut. He is definitely not your typical “cute” southpaw, but instead chooses to rely on his infighting ability to wear down his opponents, which he has done with great success in his last 4 fights. In his last 2 fights, he defeated 27^th ranked Kaizer Mabuza and 40^th ranked Sebastian Lujan, respectively, and now he turns his attention towards 37^thranked veteran Matthew Hatton. Hatton, now 31-years of age, is 43-6-2 (17 KO’s) and he has lost 2 of his last 4 fights (one of which was a punishing decision loss to Saul Alvarez back in March of 2011, and the other was a decision loss to Kell Brook in March of last year). Hatton is a tough as nails kind of guy, who will take two to give one. Unfortunately, giving up punches at a two to one rate is a sure fire way to lose a decision, especially against someone as skilled as van Heerden. I think in this fight Hatton will do better because he won’t have to deal with the hand speed of Brook or the power of Alvarez, but I still think he will be worse for the wear if he stands in and tries to slug it out. He has not beaten a quality opponent since March of 2003 when he decisioned Gianluca Branco for the EBU welterweight title, and since then, he has lost every time he stepped up in class. Unfortunately, this fight is another step up, and one that will be difficult to win in the champion’s backyard. (van Heerden by decision: 116-112)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, richard abril sharif bogere preview, showtime boxing, Uncategorized / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, richard abril sharif bogere preview, showtime boxing

Lamont Peterson-Kendall Holt Preview

NCBoxingOnline / February 20, 2013 / No comments

Lamont Peterson vs. Kendall Holt (IBF Jr. Welterweight Title) *12 Rounds, Washington D.C., February 22, 2013*
On the latest installment of Friday Night Fights, Washington D.C. native Lamont Peterson takes on the always dangerous Kendall Holt for a chance at the IBF junior welterweight title. Peterson, who is coming off of a controversial split decision victory over Amir Khan back in December of 2011, has been inactive for 14 months after elevated levels of synthetic testosterone were found in his system. Although he claims the testosterone was “natural” and prescribed by a physician to treat low levels of the hormone, he now finds himself fighting to right his career with a title winning performance against 6^th rated Kendall Holt, a former world champion with a record of 28-5 (16 KO’s). Holt, now 30 years of age, has fought well in recent outings, and although he has lost 3 of his last 6 fights, all 3 losses came against fighters currently rated in the top 26 (including Danny Garcia, rated 2^nd at 140 lbs and Timothy Bradley, rated 2^ndat 147 pounds). This should be a very entertaining fight, with Peterson looking to shake the rust off in front of his hometown crowd, and Kendall Holt looking to crash the party, pick up his second world title, and gain some overdue recognition for himself. So tune in this Friday at 9:00 pm EDT on ESPN2 to find out which fighter will have his moment of “redemption,” and which fighter will be relegated to the junior welterweight division’s second tier.
Lamont Peterson 30-1-1 (15)		Kendall Holt 28-5 (16)
B+	Boxing Ability & Intangibles	B+
B	Hand Speed	A
A+	Opposition & Experience	A+
C	Defense	C-
C-	Power	C
D+	Punch Output	D
A	Chin	B+
A-	Punch Accuracy	C+
B+	Conditioning	B+
B	Aggression	B
The Break Down Lamont Peterson is a blue collar, lunch pail-type of fighter who doesn’t throw a lot of punches but he makes the most out of those he does throw. Typically, he is somewhere in the neighborhood of 53 punches a round (well below the junior welterweight average of 60.1), but against Amir Khan he landed 39% of his total punches, and in 6 fights prior, he hovered around 36% (more than 6 percentage points above average). In addition, he covers well, he works angles, and he can take a good punch (he’s never been knocked out, although he has tasted the canvas 4 times in his last 5 fights). I think the key for Peterson in this fight is to take away the distance, not allow Holt the freedom to move around, and slow him down with body shots early and often. For Kendall Holt, the exact opposite is the case. Holt will want to work the jab, keep Peterson from getting set up, and keep his punch activity in a respectable range. Against Danny Garcia, Holt had some success early, but his total output (just 28 punches a round) was not enough to dissuade Garcia from working his way inside and banging him around. The same was true in Holt’s fight with Timothy Bradley, which Bradley won largely based on his activity and aggression. Holt is still a very slick boxer, but he cannot afford to take rounds off, and he must be more mobile to avoid getting hit 35% of the time like he did against Garcia. Conclusion This is a tough fight to predict. Holt fought extremely well against Timothy Bradley back in 2009, knocking him down twice and narrowly losing a unanimous decision, while Peterson, who fought Bradley in 2009 as well, was lucky to have won a round. Unfortunately, against Danny Garcia, Holt looked good at times but he was ultimately done in by his abysmal work rate, and the fact that he absorbed an inordinate amount of right hands and body shots. Nevertheless, he is still a quick-handed fighter with good skills and power, and if he can time Peterson while moving in and out then there is a good chance he can come away with the win. Unfortunately (for Holt), Peterson is an active, accurate puncher, who defends well, and he is the more poised and consistent of the two. I can see this fight going either way, but in the end, I think Peterson will be more successful at getting the fight he wants. I can see Holt starting off well, boxing and moving and winning the first few rounds, but eventually I think he will tire, his output will wane, and Peterson will win the battle in the trenches. Therefore, I expect a close fight over the first 5 or 6 rounds, but once Peterson starts to find the distance, I think his in-fighting skills will be the difference in granting him a close decision win. (Peterson by decision: 116-112)

Category: boxing, boxing predictions, ESPN boxing, friday night fights, lamont peterson kendall holt preview / Tags: boxing, boxing predictions, ESPN boxing, friday night fights, lamont peterson kendall holt preview

Fight Predictions for February 10 to February 16

NCBoxingOnline / February 10, 2013 / No comments

Fight Predictions for February 10 to February 16
Feb 15, 2013	#13 Delvin Rodriguez 26-6-3 (14) vs. #130 George Tahdooahnippah 31-0-1 (23), 10 rounds, Middleweights	Uncasville, CT (ESPN2)
Former world title contender Delvin Rodriguez returns to the ring this Friday night for the first time since losing to Austin Trout in his bid for the WBA junior middleweight title back in June of last year. Rodriguez, now 32 years is old, is 26-6-3 with 14 knockouts, he is currently rated 14^th according to boxrec.com, and he is ready to get back to his winning ways in front of his hometown fans in Uncasville. His opponent in this fight is George Tahdooahnippah, a 34-year old from Oklahoma known as “Comanche Boy” (because of his Native American heritage), who is an aggressive, accurate fighter with a record of 31-0-1 (23 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of 129^th. ^This should be an exciting fight. Rodriguez is the far more experienced fighter, but he has only won 2 of his last 7 fights, and he did not look entirely like himself in his most recent outing (a lopsided decision loss to Trout). Tahdooahnippah, on the other hand, is facing his first major step up in competition (having fought 31 of his 33 fights in the Sooner state), he has only been past 6 rounds once in his career, and he has not fought one junior middleweight currently rated in the top 200. From clips I have seen, Tahdooahnippah looks to be an exciting, durable fighter, but thus far, he has subsisted on regional opposition, and I think he will struggle against the experienced, battle tested Rodriguez. Therefore, while I think Tahdooahnippah will come forward and fight valiantly, I predict that Rodriguez will stand in the pocket, block Tahdooahnippah’s “arm punches” and counter with the more powerful and telling blows. I look for a good back and forth fight, but in the end, I think Rodriguez will come away with a late round stoppage. (Rodriguez by 8^th round TKO)
Feb 16, 2013	#1 Adrien Broner 25-0 (21) vs. #8 Gavin Rees 37-1-1 (18), 12 rounds, WBC Lightweight Title	Atlantic City, NJ (HBO)
(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
Feb 16, 2013	#14 Sakio Bika 30-5-2 (21) vs. #21 Nikola Sjekloca 25-0 (7), 12 rounds, WBC Super Middleweight Eliminator	Atlantic City, NJ (HBO)
Former world title contender Sakio Bika will be co-featured on HBO’s “World Championship Boxing” this Saturday in Atlantic City, as he looks to improve upon his 2-fight winning streak with a victory over undefeated, 21^st ranked Nikola Sjekloca. Sjekloca, a 34-year old from Montenegro, is 25-0, including 7 KO’s, but having fought almost exclusively out of his home base of Serbia/Montenegro, he has never faced anyone the caliber of Sakio Bika before. Bika is an experienced 33-year old Australian (now living in L.A.) and originally from Cameroon, and he is an aggressive, action packed fighter with quick hands and good punching power. He is very strong and physical, and the only “legitimate” defeats he has suffered in his 12-year, 37-fight career came against Sam Soliman, Lucian Bute, Joe Calzaghe and Andre Ward. He is an experienced, durable fighter (who’s never been knocked out), and he carries a ton of power in that looping right hand of his. Not always known for his defensive prowess, Bika has made some strides in that department over the last few years, but rest assured, he is still the all-action banger we have come to know and love. This is a somewhat of an intriguing fight. I have heard some good things about Sjekloca, and in clips he appears to be a solid offensive fighter with a good sense of distance, but Bika is a battled tested warrior who is motivated to position himself for a shot at a world title, and he is the much more experienced fighter with the more potent offense. Therefore, while I am certain that Sjekloca will give a good effort, it is my familiarity with Bika, and my confidence in his ability, that lead me to believe he will win this one in dramatic fashion. (Bika by 7^th round TKO)
Feb 16, 2013	#46 Demetrius Hopkins 32-2-1 (12) vs. #35 Charles Whittaker 39-13-2 (23), 12 rounds, Junior Middleweights	Atlantic City, NJ (HBO)
39-year old junior middleweight journeyman Charles Whittaker takes on 46^th rated Demetrius Hopkins this Saturday night in Atlantic City in a must win fight for the USBA title. Despite his modest record, Whitaker is a fighter with appreciable skills (for his age), and despite 13 losses, he has only lost twice in the past 11 years (a period of 25 fights). During that span, Whittaker has notched several respectable wins over guys like 72^nd rated Giorbis Barthelemy, and 66^th rated Billy Lyell, and two fights ago he lost by TKO to 12^th rated Gabriel Rosado. His opponent in this fight is fellow veteran Demetrius Hopkins, a 32-year old, 13-year ring veteran with a record of 32-2-1 (12 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #46. Early in his career, Hopkins looked the part of a promising potential titlist, and he narrowly missed out on winning the WBO junior middleweight title in 2008 when he lost a split decision to Kendall Holt. Unfortunately, a lethargic, uninspiring showing against Brad Solomon three fights later put Hopkins’ future in doubt. Since then, he has fought just two times (in a period of 2 years) winning 2 scheduled 8-rounders against very modest opposition. This should be an interesting fight. Whittaker is a grizzled veteran, and Hopkins is (was?) a talented boxer with good hand speed. Unfortunately, a lot of questions marks surround Hopkins these days, and it may be difficult to compete at this level given his recent (few and far between performances). Therefore, while I think Hopkins would have won this fight easily 5 years ago, I have my doubts now. Instead, I think Whittaker will be the busier fighter (scoring well with his long jab), and I think he will box his way to an uneventful decision victory. (Whittaker by decision: 116-112)
Feb 16, 2013	#7 Vicente Escobedo 26-4 (15) vs. #34 Edner Cherry 30-6-2 (16), 10 rounds, junior lightweights	Atlantic City, NJ (HBO)
Former U.S Olympian Vicente Escobedo returns to the ring this Saturday for the first time since being savagely KO’d by a very overweight Adrien Broner back in July of last year. Escobedo, still rated 7^th (at 130 pounds) according to boxrec.com, is 26-4 with 15 KO’s, and he is still a very accomplished fighter in his own right. He has won all but 3 of his last 20 fights, losing only to Broner last year, Michael Katsidis in September of 2009 and Robert Guerrero in November of 2010, and at age 30, he is anxious to position himself for his first major world title. In this fight, Escobedo faces 12-year ring veteran Edner Cherry, a 30-year old with a record of 30-6-2 (16 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #34. While Cherry has lost some of his relevance in the last five years, his only losses during that time came against Pauli Malignaggi and Timothy Bradley, and he did score a victory over Stevie Johnston in 2008. Unfortunately, Cherry has been matched up very modestly in recent years, and in his last fight he narrowly won a majority decision against 19-13 Juan Carlos Martinez. I think Cherry, by virtue of his experience and his hand speed will be competitive in this fight, but I think Escobedo has simply done better against better competition of late. He is an aggressive fighter who moves well, defends well, and has an effective jab. I think this fight will be a good style matchup (boxer vs. puncher), but I think Escobedo will take the fight to Cherry and win in 10. (Escobedo by decision 97-93)
Feb 16, 2013	#7 Alejandro Lopez 24-2 (7) vs. #19 Jonathan Romero 22-0 (12), 12 rounds, Vacant IBF Junior Featherweight Title	Tijuana, Mexico
Alejandro Lopez is a 25-year old from Mexico with a record of 24-2 (including 7 knockouts) and a boxrec.com rating of #7. He is a quick-handed, fundamentally sound fighter who has won four fights in row, including victories over 61^st rated Teon Kennedy and 26^th rated Takalani Ndlovu. This Saturday, Lopez takes on 25-year old junior featherweight Jonathan Romero, an undefeated Columbian with a record of 22-0 (including 12 knockouts) for a future shot at the IBF junior featherweight Title. Romero, a former 2008 Columbian Olympian, is a tall fighter with a good jab, and he comes forward and throws a good number of punches a round; however, he carries his hands low, he throws wide, looping punches, and his long torso is like a lightning rod for dedicated body punchers. In this fight, he may have a hard time dealing with the movement of his quicker, more compact challenger, but he has an effective offense similar to that of fellow Columbian Breidis Prescott, and I believe he is quick enough to win the exchanges on the inside. Last September, Romero dominated 81^st rated Efrain Esquivias en route to a lopsided decision win, and while Esquivias came to him (something Lopez is unlikely to do), I think Romero is just as effective coming forward. This should be a very interesting fight. Lopez is a talented fighter with experience and skill, and Romero is a dynamic prospect who has yet to fully reach his potential. This is a tough fight to predict, but in the end, I think Romero may be a little too fast, a little too sharp, and a little too potent on offense for Lopez. Therefore, in a close, competitive fight, I am going with the Columbian to sneak away with a win on the road. (Romero by decision: 115-113)
Feb 16, 2013	#32 Dierry Jean 23-0 (15) vs. #71 Cosme Rivera 35-15-3 (24), 12 rounds, NABF Junior Welterweight Title	Quebec, Canada
Undefeated Canadian junior welterweight Dierry Jean defends his NABF title this weekend in Quebec against 36-year old veteran Cosme Rivera. Jean is a physically strong fighter with a good jab and movement, and he is currently rated 32^nd according to boxrec.com. Although still relatively untested, Jean did win a convincing 12 round decision over 65^th rated Lanardo Tyner back in May of last year, and in doing so, demonstrated a high degree of skill. He proved to be very quick, effective in combination, and very skilled defensively. In this fight, Jean faces a hard-nosed Mexican who is 35-15-3 with 12 KO’s, and is currently rated 71^st according to boxrec.com. Rivera is an experienced fighter who has only been stopped twice in 54 professional fights, and over the course of his 20-year career he has faced some of the best fighters north of 140 pounds, including Alfredo Angulo, Zab Judah, and Andre Berto. In November of 2011, Rivera recorded an impressive win over Antonio Pitalau to win the WBC Latino Junior Welterweight Title, but in his last fight (December of last year) he dropped a lopsided 10-round decision to 56^th rated Cuban prospect Yordenis Ugas. This should be an entertaining fight. Rivera is a seasoned pro who comes forward to make the fight, and Jean is a talented young prospect with a lot of potential and a lot of question marks. I expect Rivera to work his long, rangy jab and try to keep Jean on the end of his punches. If he can negate the hand speed and explosive punching power of Jean then it is possible for him to score at distance against his shorter opponent. Possible, but not probable. I think Jean is a very good prospect, with a complete arsenal of skills, and I don’t see Rivera having any legitimate answer for the offensive display with which he will be confronted. Therefore, while I expect a good professional scrap, I think the action will be completely one-sided in Jean’s favor, and I think a clean sweep on the scorecards is not out of the question. (Jean by decision: 119-109)
Feb 16, 2013	#2 Hekkie Budler 21-1 (6) vs. #34 Renan Trongco 12-3 (8), 12 rounds, IBO Stawweight Title	Gauteng, South Africa
Hekkie Budler is a 24-year old Strawweight from South Africa with a record of 21-1 (6 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #2. His only loss came at the hands of 27^th rated Gideon Buthelezi back in January of 2011 (by way of split decision), and since then he has won 4 fights in row, including impressive victories over 44^th rated Michael Landero and 18^th rated Florante Condes. In this fight, Budler faces Renan Trongco, a 24-year old from the Philippines with a record of 12-3 with 8 knockouts and a boxrec.com rating of #34. Trongco is a defensive minded southpaw who has won 4 fights in a row and 12 of his last 13 (losing only to 47^th ranked Sammy Gutierrez back in 2011), but he narrowly won a split decision over 9-3-1 Lionel Legada in his last fight, and 9 of his 12 victories have come against fighters either with losing records, or against those making their professional debuts. Trongco moves well around the ring, and he is difficult to hit, but I don’t believe he has enough offensive firepower to fend off the advances of the “Hexecutioner.” Hekkie Budler has looked very good recently against very good opposition, and I believe his active style, his more complete offensive weaponry, and the fact that he is fighting at home, will all contribute to a fairly easy decision victory. (Budler by decision: 118-110)