Archive for boxing predictions

Lamont Peterson-Lucas Matthysse Preview

Lamont Peterson vs. Lucas Matthysse

(Welterweights)

 12 Rounds, Atlantic, City, NJ, May 18, 2013 (Showtime)

This Saturday night, the always exciting Lamont Peterson takes on hard hitting Argentinean Lucas Matthysse in a ten round, non-title bout from Atlantic City.  Peterson, the current IBF junior welterweight titlist, is 29-years old, he is 31-1-1 with 16 knockouts, and he is currently rated #1 according to boxrec.com.  Last February, he registered a sensational 8th round TKO over Kendall Holt, and before that he won a thrilling (albeit controversial) decision over Amir Khan, establishing himself as one of the premier talents at 140 pounds.  In this fight, Peterson faces Lucas Matthysse, a 30-year old slugger with a record of 33-2 (31 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #3.  Matthysse is a tireless puncher with an uncanny ability to take punishment, and he can make the most skilled boxers wither from his constant pressure.  His only two losses came in split decisions against Devon Alexander and Zab Judah (two of the very best technicians in the game), and in recent performances he decisively beat 10th rated Humberto Soto, 26th rated Ajose Olusegun, and 21st rated Mike Dallas Jr.

This is a matchup between two VERY competent, exciting fighters and the blend of styles should make for one of the more memorable fights of the year.  Luckily, the fight will be televised on Showtime, and not pay-per-view, and you can catch all the action beginning this Saturday night at 9:15 pm ET.

Lamont Peterson

 

Lucas Matthysse

 

A-

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

B+

B+

Hand Speed

B

A

Opposition & Experience

A

C

Defense

B+

C-

Power

A+

D+

Punch Output

C+

A

Chin

A

A-

Punch Accuracy

C

B+

Conditioning

A

B

Aggression

A

The Break Down

Lamont Peterson is a blue collar, lunch pail-type of fighter who doesn’t throw a lot of punches but makes the most out of those he does throw.   Typically, he is somewhere in the neighborhood of 53 punches a round (well below the junior welterweight average of 60.1), but he is extremely accurate, landing 43% of his total punches against Kendall Holt, and landing at about a 36% clip in 6 fights prior (more than 6 percentage points above average).  In addition, he covers well, he works angles, and he can take an excellent punch (he’s never been knocked out, although he has tasted the canvas 4 times in his last 6 fights).  If he can get off first, and touch Matthysse with accurate, quick shots I think he can box his way to a win; however, if he decides to “tough it out,” as is his nature, he could be in for a rough night.

Lucas Matthysse is a hard-charging, hard throwing veteran who patiently seeks openings and pressures his opponents into fighting at close distance.   He is also an active fighter (throwing around 64 punches a round) with tremendous power, registering 31 of his 33 wins inside the distance (86%).  In five previous fights, Matthysse has landed (on average) 29% of his punches, and has been hit in return only 22% of the time, meaning he is more than just a one-dimensional slugger.  He covers well, he has a good sense of distance and he knows how to negate an opponent’s hand speed with his timing.  If he is able to control the space inside and smother Peterson, his power punching (which comprises 90% of his offense) will make him difficult to beat. 

Conclusion

This is an absolute pick’em fight.  I can see Peterson starting off well, boxing, moving and clinching when he needs to; but eventually I think he will tire, his output will wane, and Matthysse will begin to take over in the middle rounds.  Matthysse is a rare gem that successfully combines speed and power with pressure and defense, and he is exceptional at breaking opponents down and getting them to fight his fight.  Against 20th rated Ajose Olusegun, Matthysse out-threw his opponent by 121 punches, he out-landed him by 137 punches and he landed at a 42% clip, including 49% of his power shots.  If he does anything close to those numbers in this fight, it will be virtually impossible for Peterson to keep pace.

In the end, I think this will be an EXCELLENT fight, and I predict that Peterson will come out of the gate looking strong, fast, and focused.  Unfortunately, Peterson’s toughness, and his willingness to trade, will force him into a fight (and pace) that he is unsuited for, and by the late rounds Matthysse’s power punching will be the difference in the fight.  Therefore, in a close fight, I predict that Matthysse’s power, aggression, and subtle defensive maneuvering will enable him to score the more dramatic punches and win a close, 2-3 point decision win. 

(Matthysse by decision:115-112)* Including one knockdown

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Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4

Fight Predictions for April 28 to May 4

May 2, 2013

#38 Mauricio Herrera 18-3 (7) vs. #23 Ji-Hoon Kim 24-8 (18), 10 rounds, Junior Welterweights

Corona, CA

This Friday in Corona, California, hard-hitting veteran Mauricio Herrera takes on the always entertaining Ji-Hoon Kim on the latest installment of ESPN’s Friday Night Fights.  Herrera is 18-3 with 7 knockouts, he is currently rated 38th according to boxrec.com, and he brings a very entertaining style with him to the ring.  In addition to being a tough, aggressive fighter, Herrera is also very experienced, having recently gone ten rounds with both Karim Mayfield (#11) and Mike Alvarado (#4), and having beaten 17th rated Mike Dallas Jr. and 13th rated Ruslan Provodnikov.  Herrera’s opponent in this fight is FNF regular Ji-Hoon Kim, a 26-year old South Korean with a record of 24-8 (18 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #23.  Kim is an all-action fighter (to the dismay of his trainers) and he is a tough kid with a decent amount of power, but he has lost 3 of his last 6 fights, and he showed SERIOUS “defensive deficiencies” in his latest ten round loss to Raymundo Beltran (#7).This should be a very entertaining and action packed fight.  Both guys have engaging styles, both throw a high volume of punches, and neither seems to shy away from contact.  I predict that Kim will fight like a man possessed (like always), but I think Herrera, being a bit more polished defensively, will find ways to score and not get hit as often in return.  Kim only knows one way to fight, and that is head down with arms pumping, and if Herrera can land combinations and utilize a little head and foot movement, I think he will do more damage, and ultimately claim a close decision on the scorecards.

(Herrera by decision:96-94)

May 3, 2013

#1 Yota Sato 26-2-1 (12) vs. #50 Srisaket Sor Rungvisai 18-3-1 (17), 12 rounds, WBC Junior Bantamweight Title

Si Sa Ket, Thailand

This Friday in Srisaket, Thailand, Japanese WBC Junior Bantamweight Champion Yota Sato, looks to make the 3rd defense of the title he won against Suriyan Sor Rungvisai in March of last year.  Soto is 26-2-1 with 12 knockouts, he is currently rated #1 by boxrec.com, and he has not lost since September of 2005 (a period of 22 fights).  Sato is a tall fighter (5’7”) with a good jab and good lateral movement, and against Sor Rungvisai he boxed nicely from the outside and offset the aggression of his smaller opponent by getting in and out quickly.  In this fight, Sato faces a similar opponent in 48th rated Srisaket Sor Rungvisai, a 26-year old from Thailand with a record of 18-3-1, including 17 knockouts.  Despite starting his career at 1-3-1, Rungvisai has since won 17 straight fights, and he has positioned himself for a shot at the WBC title due in part to his abundance of knockout wins (17 KO’s in 22 fights).  Unfortunately, Rungvisai has not faced anyone on the level of Sato (excluding Akira Yaegashi who dealt him his 1st professional loss back in 2009), and his best win to date (arguably) was over 80th ranked Wilber Andogan, a 9-11-4 fighter who has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights.  Rungvisai is an aggressive puncher who covers well, and if he can get inside the long jab of Sato he could make things interesting, but that may be more difficult than it seems.This is another good boxer/puncher matchup, and Rungvisai, in favorable confines, might have a chance to win.  As it stands, however, I think Sato is the better all-around boxer, he is more experienced, and he matches up better physically.  Therefore, while I think Rungvisai will make for a good fight, I think Sato will use his excellent jab, his awkwardly effective style, and his quick hands to box his way to a close, but deserved win on the cards. 

(Sato by decision:116-112)

May, 4, 2013

#1 Floyd Mayweather Jr. 43-0 (26) vs. #4 Robert Guerrero 31-1-1 (18), 12 rounds, WBC Welterweight Title

Las Vegas, NV (Showtime PPV)

(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)

May 4, 2013

#4 Daniel Ponce De Leon 44-4 (35) vs. #2 Abner Mares 25-0-1 (13), 12 rounds, WBC Featherweight Title

Las Vegas, NV (Showtime PPV)

After losing back-to-back fights with Adrien Broner and Yuriorkis Gamboa in 2011, the free swinging Daniel Ponce De Leon has since won 3 in a row, and he is looking to defend his newly acquired WBC title against the very talented Abner Mares this weekend in Las Vegas.  De Leon is 44-4 with 35 knockouts, he is currently rated 4th according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of a dominating performance against 7th rated Jhonny Gonzalez this past September.  He hits hard, he is extremely durable and well conditioned, and at 32-years of age, he is showing no signs of slowing down.  The most important fight ahead of me is against Abner Mares. I want to beat him, so all my past fights do not interest me. The fight I have ahead of me is the one that matters,” said De Leon.  “I feel like a winner. I train with a lot of strength and that is the key to victory.”De Leon’s opponent in this fight is 27-year Abner Mares, a former 2-division titlist who has his sights set on acquiring a 3rd title.  He is 25-0-1 with 13 knockouts, he is currently rated #2 according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of a sensational title winning performance over Anselmo Moreno (#2) back in November of last year.  Mares is a tough, aggressive guy that closes the distance well and lands accurate power shots on the inside.  He is extremely experienced for a guy with only 26 fights (having fought Anselmo Moreno, Joseph Agbeko twice, Vic Darchinyan, Yohnny Perez, and Eric Morel in his last 6 fights), and he is capable of changing the dynamic of a fight with his high volume attack.  Against Eric Morel, Mares averaged close to 65 punches a round; however, it is not uncommon for his output to exceed the 80 mark, as it did against Yohnny Perez (1032 total punches thrown over 12 rounds). 

Mares’ greatest asset, however, may be his ability to adapt and fight according to his opponents’ weaknesses.  He can box and offset more aggressive challenges, or he can press the action, land accurate power shots, and rely on his excellent conditioning to extend the pace of the fight into the later rounds.  Over his last 6 fights, Mares has landed at an average of 34% (slightly above the junior featherweight average of 32.9%) and he has been hit (on average) about 30% of the time. 

This should be an EXCELLENT fight.  Mares is capable of using his speed and footwork to out-box De Leon, but I think his warring mentality will force him into a battle at close quarters (making this a much more difficult fight than it should be). “You gotta give the fans what they wanna see, what they paid to see, and that’s a war, and a fight,” said Mares.  “That’s what myself and Ponce De Leon gotta give.”  Therefore, while I think Mares will ultimately find a way to flurry and box his way to victory, I think he is in for a rough, physical, ugly fight, and I think he will be bruised, battered but victorious when the final bell sounds.

(Mares by split decision: 115-113)

May 4, 2013

#3 Leo Santa Cruz 23-0-1 (13) vs. #127 Alexander Munoz 36-4 (28), 10 rounds, Junior Featherweights

Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)

Former IBF Bantamweight Champion Leo Santa Cruz moves up to the junior featherweight division this weekend to take on 127th rated Alexander Munoz for the vacant USBA title.  Cruz, perhaps the most vicious body puncher in the entire sport, is 24-years old, he is 23-0-1 with 13 knockouts, and he is currently rated 3rd overall by boxrec.com.  Cruz won the IBF title with an easy decision over 32nd rated Vusi Malinga back in June of last year, and since then he made successful defenses against Alberto Guevara (#31), Victor Zaleta (#32) and Eric Morel.  In this fight, Cruz faces Alexander Munoz, a tough 34-year old from Venezuela who has never been stopped in 40 professional fights.  Munoz, 36-4, has been in with some solid opposition so far in his 14-year career, including 15th rated Koki Kameda, and 6th rated Cristian Mijares, but he has only fought one time over the past 28 months (a TKO over 504th ranked Ever Garcia Hernandez last November), and his last 4 victories came against fighters with a combined record of 49-65-6.     In the end, I think Munoz will put forth a valiant effort, but the stalking, body punching tendencies of Santa Cruz will be WAY too much to overcome.  In his fight against Eric Morel, Santa Cruz LANDED 55 punches a round, and connected on a staggering 66% of his power shots, and against Victor Zaleta he threw 93 punches per round and landed 41%.  If he does even close to that (against a ring-rusted fighter who is not accustomed to getting blasted to the body repeatedly for 12 rounds), then I think Santa Cruz will get his 14thwin inside the distance.

(Santa Cruz by 7th round TKO)

May 4, 2013

#65 J’Leon Love 15-0 (8) vs. #12 Gabriel Rosado 21-6 (13), 10 rounds, Middleweights

Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)

Undefeated prospect J’Leon Love takes on the biggest test of his young career this Saturday night when he faces the always tough Gabriel Rosado on the Mayweather-Guerrero undercard from Las Vegas.  Love, a 25-year old, fighting out of the Mayweather Gym in Vegas, is 15-0 with 8 knockouts, and is rated 65th according to boxrec.com.  He is a quick-handed, physically strong fighter, with good defensive skills and he can fight out of the pocket extremely well.  Unfortunately, Love has yet to be tested, and on May 4, he will be in with a world class opponent who is anxious to return to his winning ways after suffering a tough TKO loss to 3rd rated Gennady Golovkin back in January.  Up until that fight, Rosado had won 7 fights in a row, including TKO wins over 36th rated Jesus Soto Karass, and 39th rated Sechew Powell.  Now 27-years old, Rosado is 21-6 with 13 knockouts, and he is currently rated 12th according to boxrec.com. Aside from being one of the most exciting fighters in the middleweight division, Rosado is an aggressive guy, he throws combinations well, and he is a very good body puncher. This should be a VERY entertaining fight.  I seem to say that about every fight that Rosado is in, but he is looking to rebound after a difficult loss, and he is in with a very talented young fighter looking to make a name for himself.  I can see Love having success early from distance as Rosado paws his way forward, but I think Rosado has the power and experience to make this a rough fight (something Love has not experienced), and I predict he will win the exchanges in close.  Therefore, if Rosado can negate some of Love’s hand speed, bang him to the body often, and make it a physical fight, I think his experience and proven toughness make him a slight favorite to win.  

(Rosado by close, tough decision: 115-113)

May 4, 2013

#2 Wladimir Klitschko 59-3 (50) vs. #13 Francesco Pianeta 28-0-1 (15), 12 rounds, IBF/WBO/WBA Heavyweight Title

Mannheim, Germany (Epix)

Wladimir Klitschko looks to keep his 17-fight win streak alive with a victory over Germany’s Francesco Pianeta this weekend in Mannheim, Germany.  Klitschko has not lost since 2004, he has recorded stoppages in 7 out of last 9 fights, and his career KO percentage now stands at 81%.  He is a big, strong, mobile heavyweight with a punishing and active jab and a devastating right hand, and he is vastly more experienced than Pianeta (having fought in 157 world championship rounds, to Pianeta’s zero.)  He is also an exceptional boxer (having never been decisioned), and it is virtually impossible to muster up any offense against him (his last six opponents averaged just 24 punches a round, and only five punches landed-numbers that fall about 50% and 70% below the heavyweight average respectively).  In this fight, Klitschko faces a fighter that is comparable in stature (6’5”, 240 lbs) but on par, in terms of ability, with his usual nameless rabble of victims.  Pianeta is undefeated, at 28-0-1 (15 KO’s), he is currently rated 15th according to boxrec.com, and he has managed to record a few recent victories over some washed up ex-champions like Frans Botha and Oliver McCall; but he is a bit lumbering, he doesn’t possess tremendous power (5 of his last 6 fights have gone the distance), and his offensive instinct could hardly be described as being “killer.”  Pianeta is a southpaw, however, with decent footwork and defensive ability, and if he doesn’t over-commit, doesn’t over-extend, and doesn’t try to do too much on offense, there is a good chance that he will survive for the full 12 rounds. I think this is ANOTHER easy victory for Wladimir (what else is new?), and another example of the sorry state of heavyweight boxing these days.  Pianeta is currently rated 7th by the WBO and 12th by the WBA, but his recent victories over fighters barely ranked in the top 100 hardly make him worthy of a title shot against the best heavyweight in the world. 

In the end, I can see Pianeta working the jab, maintaining distance, and making the fight close (dull) over the first half of the fight.  However, after Wladimir assesses the situation, I think he will start to monopolize the real estate, and Pianeta will be forced to move and cover, or tempt fate in the danger zone.  In all, I think Pianeta will fight respectably (much like Wach did in his last fight), but in the end, In think Klitschko is way too experienced, he hits harder, he is faster, and he is far more likely to impose his will (and jab) upon his less experienced foe.

(Klitschko by late round stoppage)

May 4, 2013

#UNR Mike Perez 18-0 (12) vs. #57 Travis Walker 39-9-1 (31), 10 rounds, Heavyweights

Mannheim, Germany (Epix)

Undefeated Cuban heavyweight prospect Mike Perez steps up in class this weekend to take on 57th rated gatekeeper Travis Walker in Mannheim, Germany.  Perez, a former Cuban amateur standout, is 27-years old, he is 18-0 with 12 KO’s, and he is poised to take the next step forward in his career.  He is an exciting, explosive puncher with good hand speed and he has ability to overwhelm with his high-volume attack. Standing opposite Perez is 33-year old Texas native Travis Walker, an experienced, powerful fighter with a record of 39-9-1 (31 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #57.  Walker has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, and he is only 8-7 in his past 15 fights, but he has been in with some of the best heavyweights in the world, including Jonathan Banks, Ruslan Chagaev, Kubret Pulev, and Tomasz Adamek.  He is a strong, 250-pounder with an 82” reach and good skills, but he has been knocked out 6 times total, and he has had some endurance issues in past fights.   

Ultimately, this fight pits the slick-boxing skills and speed of Perez, versus the power, strength and experience of Walker.  I think Perez is capable of out-boxing Walker in this one, but he must be very careful to avoid the big overhand right (the one that dropped Tomasz Adamek), and he must keep Walker from setting down and landing power shots. 

I expect a good fight from these two.  Walker has all the attributes of a good heavyweight contender, but he can be wild at times, and his chin is not exactly world class. Nevertheless, he is still a very dangerous opponent, and Perez would be wise to show some caution early.  He hasn’t fought in nearly 16 months, and it may take him a few rounds to negotiate the timing and distance against his taller opponent.  However, I think Perez will ultimately find the rhythm, and he will begin to jab his way inside, throw combinations, and control the fight with his activity and speed, winning by 5-6 points on the cards.   

(Perez by decision: 97-93)

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Floyd Mayweather Jr.-Robert Guerrero Preview

Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Robert Guerrero

(WBC Welterweight Title)

 12 Rounds, Las Vegas, NV, May 4, 2013 (Showtime PPV)

Five-division champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. returns to “The Strip” this Saturday night to defend his WBC welterweight title against four-division champion Robert Guerrero on a Showtime sponsored pay-per-view event from Las Vegas.  After successfully taking the WBA junior middleweight title from Miguel Cotto last May, “The Money Team” icon looks to improve upon his 43-0 record, and continue his reign atop the pound-for-pound rankings.  Standing in his way is California native Robert Guerrero, a 30-year old with a record of 31-1-1 (18 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #4.  Guerrero made the successful jump to 147 pounds last July with a 12 round decision over 17th ranked (and previously undefeated Selcuk Aydin), and this past November he followed up that performance with a decisive 12-round victory over 11th ranked Andre Berto.  Guerrero is an aggressive, highly motivated southpaw with excellent boxing skills, and he is willful enough to make an honest run at the future hall of famer.  The question is, is Mayweather, at age 36, still at the peak of his abilities or will we witness the inevitable diminishment of skill that befalls even the greatest of fighters as they age?  I guess you will have to cough up the exorbitant $70 pay-per-view fee to find out.  “Money Team” membership definitely has its rewards.  

Floyd Mayweather Jr.

43-0 (26)

 

Robert Guerrero

31-1-1 (18)

A+

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

A

A+

Hand Speed

A-

A+

Opposition & Experience

A

A+

Defense

A

B

Power

C+

D

Punch Output

B

A

Chin

A

A+

Punch Accuracy

C+

A+

Conditioning

A+

B

Aggression

B+

The Break Down

Floyd Mayweather Jr. is arguably one of the best defensive fighters, and most accurate punchers, in the entire history of boxing.  According to Compubox’s plus/minus rankings (which rates fighters based on their punches landed vs. their opponents’ connect percentage), Mayweather is the #1 fighter in the history of the sport in terms of precision punching/defensive prowess; and, it’s not even close.  Mayweather lands, on average, about 42% of his punches and he gets hit with about 17% in return, giving him a plus/minus rating of +25.  In contrast, Guerrero lands at a 32% clip, and gets hit (on average) about 31% of the time, giving him a plus/minus rating of +1.  To put that into perspective, Muhammad Ali, one of the most legendary sharp-shooters in the history of the heavyweight division (and notorious will o’ the wisp), only musters a +4 using the same criteria between the years of 1964-1967 (37%-34%).  In other words, Floyd is ridiculously accurate, and next to impossible to hit.  Add to that the fact that he is an extremely smart and adaptive fighter, he is extremely experienced, and his power, according to Shane Mosley, is equal to that of Saul Alvarez.  If he gets distance to operate, his hand speed and timing make him extremely hard to beat.

Robert Guerrero, on the other hand, is a crafty ring technician with very good hand speed, excellent defense, and a good sense of what is required for each situation.  He moves in and out well, he punches in combination well, and he is good at seizing the initiative and getting off first.  While he doesn’t typically throw 100 punches a round (as he did against Malcolm Klassen in August of 2009), he does keep his activity somewhere around 60 or so, which is just enough to keep his opponents from settling in.  Although activity alone is no guarantee of success against Mayweather, just ask Ricky Hatton.  “I must have thrown three times more punches than Floyd, but he threw the punches that counted,” said the former TKO victim.  “He didn’t waste any shots and he caught me.  That’s what makes him a great fighter.”  Indeed, Floyd has such quick-strike ability that Guerrero will need to be cautious about over committing and opening himself up to a world of hurt.      

Conclusion

The outcome of this fight ultimately depends on Guerrero’s ability to deal with the hand speed of Mayweather, and whether or not he can continue to keep to keep pace after getting drilled a number of times with stinging counters.  Guerrero is a very good fighter, and he is only fractionally worse than Floyd in the above attribute breakdown, but unfortunately, an exceptional fighter usually beats an excellent fighter, and talent beats determination.  Mayweather has better intangibles, he is faster, he is more experienced, he is more accurate, he has more power, and he is better defensively.  On the flip side, Guerrero, while still VERY good in each of those categories, must rely on his aggression, activity, and fortitude to win, and I think barring a KO victory, he will be bruised and battered by the fight’s conclusion.   

Simply put, Floyd Mayweather is one of the most accurate punchers and one the best defensive specialists of this era or any other, and his work ethic, speed, boxing ability, and conditioning are beyond reproach.  While Guerrero is a very dedicated athlete, and talented fighter in his own right, he will have to fight flawlessly to win, and as Mayweather has stated time and time again, “You can’t make mistakes against me.” 

In the end, I think Guerrero will provide some tense moments through the first half of the fight (particularly with his straight left hand), and I think he will make Mayweather work hard for his money, but ultimately, Mayweather’s “impregnable” defense and his unbelievable hand speed (which has made fighters like Juan Manuel Marquez and Oscar de La Hoya look pedestrian) will be the difference in this fight.  Therefore, while I think Guerrero will put forth a valiant effort, I think he will catch lead right hands all night long, and by rounds 8 or 9 his compulsory need to protect himself will override his desire to win the fight, and Mayweather will cruise to a clear decision on the cards.   

(Mayweather by decision: 117-111)

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Danny Garcia-Zab Judah Preview

Danny Garcia vs. Zab Judah

(WBC/WBA Jr. Welterweight Titles)

 12 Rounds, Brooklyn, NY, April 27,  2013 (Showtime)

This Saturday night in Brooklyn, Danny “Swift” Garcia defends his WBA/WBC junior welterweight titles against super slick southpaw Zab “Super” Judah.  After registering a stunning TKO victory over Amir Khan back in July of last year, Garcia has since defeated Erik Morales for a second time, and he has run his record to a perfect 25-0 with 16 knockouts.  He is an explosive, gutsy fighter, and his resolve will be put to the test against veteran cutie Zab Judah, who comes into the fight with a 42-7 record (29 KO’s) and a recent boxrec.com rating of #4.  Judah, now 35-years old, is 6-1 since November of 2008 (with his only loss coming by way of a controversial TKO to Amir Khan back in July of 2011), and during that span he defeated Vernon Paris and Lucas Matthysse (fighters currently rated 25nd and 3rd respectively).  This should be an excellent matchup between a confident young puncher with speed, power, and an eccentric father (Garcia), and an experienced defensive technician out to prove he has some gas left in the tank (Judah).  Does Zab have what it takes to turn back the clock and win his 6th world title, or will Danny Garcia successfully defend his titles and continue along his path to superstardom?   Either way, whether it is a “Swift” victory for Garcia, or a “Super” upset win for Judah, it should be a terrific night of boxing, and you can catch all the action beginning Saturday at 9:00 pm ET on Showtime.

Danny Garcia

25-0 (16)

 

Zab Judah

42-7 (29)

A-

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

A-

B+

Hand Speed

A-

A

Opposition & Experience

A+

B-

Defense

B

B+

Power

B-

C-

Punch Output

D

A

Chin

B+

C

Punch Accuracy

C-

A

Conditioning

A

B+

Aggression

B

The Break Down

Danny Garcia is a skilled boxer puncher with good hand speed, a good looping right hand, and the accuracy (about 30%) necessary to fight effectively out of the pocket.  He is also a tough, aggressive, kid whose offense is comprised of about 67% power shots.  In fact, in his first meeting with Erik Morales, Garcia threw 205 more power shots than his adversary (445 to 240), and he out-landed him by 99 punches in that category (170-71).  Traditionally, Garcia throws about 30 power shots a round (landing about 40%), and in this fight it will serve him well to continue with that tradition.  Judah is elusive (in the vein of Pernell Whitaker), and he punches well from varying angles, but he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of punches (only 49 per round-11 under the junior welterweight average of 60.3), so an aggressive, active strategy is the key to victory for Garcia.   

For Zab Judah, who is a good boxer with good lateral movement and hand speed, he will need to snap the jab, throw combinations, and not give Garcia a chance to get set.  Against Amir Khan, Garcia had difficulty (through the first 2 ½ rounds) dealing with Khan’s speed and movement, and a bit of frustration was evident as he tried to get in range and score (Khan out-threw Garcia 114-37 in the jab department, and out-landed him 46-5).  If Judah wants to be successful in this fight he must do the same thing (only better and for a longer period of time).  Judah is already an exceptional defensive fighter, but he must offer up more offensively to dissuade Garcia from getting in close and setting down on his punches.

Conclusion

This fight will be determined by Judah’s ability to score quickly and get out, and not get caught “square.” Garcia is a solid puncher with a 64% KO rate, and he is tough enough to withstand Judah’s shots, so facing off against him is a recipe for disaster.  Instead, Judah must score with the jab, shoot lead left hands, and throw meaningful combinations.  Garcia is not terribly difficult to hit (Amir Khan landed 45% against him, and 50% of his power shots), so Judah can find opportunities to land, but he must be willing to match Garcia in the power department if he wants to impress the judges.  Garcia has a knack for landing hard, clean shots, and if Judah relies too heavily on his jab (which typically comprises 40%-50% of his total offense) then his “lighter” punches won’t get scored equally. 

In the end, I look for Judah to fight a smart, defensive fight, relying on his hand speed and experience to frustrate Garcia; but as the fight wears on, I think Garcia’s aggression, his accurate power punching, and his ability to get off first will be the keys to victory.  Therefore, while I predict Judah will do well over the first half of the fight, I think Garcia will eventually catch him, rough him up on the inside, and take him out in the late rounds. 

(Garcia by 10th round KO)

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Saul Alvarez-Austin Trout Preview

 Saul Alvarez vs. Austin Trout

WBA/WBC Jr. Middleweight Unification

 12 Rounds, San Antonio, TX,  April 20, 2013 (Showtime)

 

This Saturday night on Showtime, junior middleweights Saul Alvarez and Austin Trout face off in a much anticipated title unification bout from San Antonio, Texas.  Alvarez, still just 22 years of age, is 40-0-1 with 30 KO’s, he is currently rated #1 by boxrec.com, and he is coming off of an impressive 5th round TKO over 12th rated Josesito Lopez back in September of last year.  He is an aggressive, hard-hitting, immensely popular champion, and as Ring’s Magazine’s #2 overall pound-for-pound, he is one of the most exceptional talents in the sport today.  “We are working hard,” said Alvarez.  My team and I are focused 100% on my opponent.  I have great respect for Austin Trout and what he has been able to achieve.  He’s a very intelligent fighter, young, skilled, and tough.  It’s not going to be an easy task to beat him, but we’re working hard and getting ready.  I respect Trout outside of the ring, but once he’s in the ring, that’s a whole different thing.”

His opponent in this fight, WBA junior middleweight champion Austin Trout, is a 27-year old from New Mexico with a record of 26-0 (14 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #2.  Trout, who won the title with a “workmanlike” performance against 15th rated Delvin Rodriguez in June of 2012, is coming off of a resounding decision win over future hall of famer Miguel Cotto this past December, and he is confident that he will walk out with the title still strapped comfortably around his waist.  “I’m a fast, hungry champion,” said Trout.  “I don’t believe that Canelo is the second coming of Oscar De La Hoya.  I do believe that I’m the better fighter.  If I didn’t think I could be victorious, I wouldn’t be risking my life and limb to face this man.  I wouldn’t be risking my undefeated record and my belt if I didn’t believe in myself.  I’ll be victorious, and I’ll go home as the unified champion.”

So tune this Saturday at 10 PM ET to witness one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year, the junior middleweight unification battle between two of boxing’s biggest stars, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, and Austin “No Doubt” Trout.      

Saul Alvarez

40-0-1 (30)

 

Austin Trout

26-0 (14)

A

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

A

B+

Hand Speed

A

B+

Opposition & Experience

B+

B+

Defense

B+

A-

Power

C+

D+

Punch Output

B+

A

Chin

A

A+

Punch Accuracy

C

A

Conditioning

A

A+

Aggression

B-

The Break Down

Austin Trout is an active, slick-boxing southpaw with quick hands and a nice assortment of offensive weapons.   Occasionally, however, he has a tendency to paw with the jab rather than using it as an effective weapon (he landed just 37 out of 419 jabs in his fight with Delvin Rodriguez and 46 out of 349 versus Cotto), and he throws punches from too far out (as evidenced by his 22% overall punches landed statistic against Rodriguez).  Nevertheless, Trout does throw the jab often, and he is an excellent defensive fighter with good foot movement, who moves in and out of range well (Rodriguez was only able to land 20% of his total punches against him and Miguel Cotto was never able to set up his power shots according to plan.  If Trout stays active (he has averaged 72.5 punches per round in his last 5 fights) utilizes his jab effectively, and throws quick combinations, he can negate the aggressive tendencies of Alvarez and win a decision much like he did against Cotto.

For Saul Alvarez, who is a devastating puncher with incredible precision, he will want to pressure Trout, get in close and land combinations of his own.  Against Josesito Lopez, Alvarez landed a staggering 52% of his total punches, and in 4 previous fights he averaged 40% landed, including 50.5% of his power shots (more than 13% higher than the junior middleweight average).  While he doesn’t throw a tremendous amount of punches per round (just under 50), Alvarez does an excellent job of seizing opportunities and never letting his opponents gain momentum.  If you hit him, he will hit you back, and there is a good chance that his punches will do more damage.  In addition, Alvarez is also anything but a one-dimensional slugger, and his “punches absorbed” numbers in recent fights (26% vs. Ryan Rhodes, 25% vs. Shane Mosley, and 14% vs. Kermit Cintron), all support the notion that he is more than just a crude knockout artist.  If he can cut the ring off, apply consistent pressure, and get to Trout inside (the way Cotto did in the middle rounds) I think Alvarez could win by decision or late round TKO.       

Conclusion

The outcome of this fight largely depends on the aggression, activity, and persistence of Alvarez.  Trout is a very good fighter at range, and he was easily able to frustrate and discourage Miguel Cotto his last time out, and if he throws 75 punches a round and keeps moving, there is a chance a similar outcome could result this time; but I doubt it.  I think Alvarez’s natural tendency to stalk and pursue will help him to close the distance, and his power, accuracy, and intestinal fortitude will enable him to navigate Trout’s jab and land the more telling blows of the fight.  Alvarez has the rage of a young Mike Tyson and the disdain of a young Roberto Duran.  Not to take anything away from Miguel Cotto, but at the age of 32, he simply was not willing to do “whatever was necessary” to get the win.  I think Alvarez will be.     

Ultimately, this fight pits the power, aggression and accuracy of Alvarez against the hand speed, and activity of Trout.  I think Trout is a the slicker of the two “boxing-wise,” but I hesitate to side against Alvarez in the “intangible” category (making the boxing ability category a push), and I think these two are equal in terms of conditioning, defense, and the ability to take a punch.  That simply leaves the all important matter of who wants it more?

In the end, I think Alvarez will do what Miguel Cotto couldn’t; he will effectively pressure Trout, he will cut the ring off, and he will fight like the motivated 22-year old that he is; because kids nowadays just don’t know any better.

(Alvarez by decision: 115-113)

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Fight Predictions for April 7th to April 13th

Fight Predictions for April 7 to April 13

Apr 12, 2013

#20 Rico Ramos 21-2 (11) vs. #28 Oscar Gonzalez 20-2 (14), 10 rounds, Featherweights

Shelton, WA (ESPN2)

When they say boxing is 90% mental and 10% physical, they (experts such as Teddy Atlas) are talking specifically about fighters like Rico Ramos, who despite having a wealth of talent, sometimes act as their own worst enemy when it comes to harnessing fear and crafting an effective plan of action.  Despite a distinguished amateur career, and a professional career that began with 20 straight wins (and resulted in a world title), Ramos has at times looked out of sorts and helpless against a more elite caliber of opposition.   He looked beatable against 15th rated Akifumi Shimoda in 2011 (scarcely winning a round through 6), he looked dreadful in a six-round knockout loss to 3rd rated Guillermo Rigondeaux in 2012, and he recently dropped a clear ten round decision to 14th rated Ronny Rios this past January.  This fight, televised on ESPN2, is critical for Ramos if he wants to hang on to any future relevance as a featherweight contender.

Ramos is still a gifted boxer with good defense (Rigondeaux and Shimoda only landed 24% and 25% against him respectively), and he looked impressive (at times) in his majority decision victory over the aggressive Efrain Esquivias; but unfortunately, Ramos is not terribly accurate (landing well below the junior featherweight average of 32%) and in recent fights he has been overwhelmed and unable to adapt.  Against Rigondeaux, Ramos looked intimidated from the get go, landing just 15 out of 114 punches (13%), and getting knocked down in the 1st and 6th rounds.  He fought tentatively, he allowed Rigondeaux to get off first (just as he did against Shimoda, when he was out-landed by 25 punches and out-thrown by 151), and his offense went “MIA” for extended periods of time.  In this fight, Ramos needs to stay active, use his footwork and combinations, and try to touch Gonzalez often, but not engage him fully in the center of the ring.  He seems to struggle to keep up with quality fighters who pressure and throw at a high rate, and Gonzalez, while not terribly busy, carries good power in his right hand, as well as his left hook to the body.  A 32-year old from Mexico, Oscar Gonzalez is 20-2 with 14 knockouts, he is currently rated 28th, and he is coming off of a close decision loss to 25th rated Raul Hirales this past December.  He is a tall fighter who controls distance well with his jab, and if he is allowed to set up on the outside, he could make this a very difficult fight for Ramos.

Ultimately, however, I think Ramos’ speed, his defense, and the fact that this is a “must win” fight for him, will be enough to propel him “physically and mentally” to a close decision win.  

(Ramos by decision: 97-93)

Apr 12, 2013

#41 Angelo Santana 14-0 (11) vs. #85 Bahodir Mamadjonov 12-1 (8), 10 rounds, Lightweights

Las Vegas, NV (Showtime)

Angelo Santana is a “Don King promoted,” 24-year old Cuban (now fighting out of Miami) with a record of 14-0 (11 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #36.  He is a mobile southpaw with solid defensive skills and power in both hands (as evidenced by his recent knockout of Broderick Antoine (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgEbDSBTq_o).  He throws a nice straight left, he can hook off the jab, he can catch you with a lead right hook, and he developed excellent fundamentals as an amateur in Cuba (compiling a record of 180 wins against just 3 losses).  In this fight, Santana takes on last minute replacement Bahodir Mamadjonov, a 25-year old Uzbek (by way of Texas) with a record of 12-1 (8 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #85.  Mamadjonov is a compact, fairly aggressive southpaw with a good straight left hand and a good looping right hook, and two fights ago he gave 38th rated prospect Darley Perez all he could handle in a “split-decision” losing effort.

In all, I think this will be a good fight, but I see both fighters jumping in with power shots and holding on the inside.  If that is the case, I think Santana will be able to out-muscle and out-work Mamadjonov, while utilizing his sharper skills, and power to win the exchanges.  Mamadjonov can win if he stays active, doesn’t wait too long to throw, and closes the distance on his taller opponent; but if he is not quick-in and quick-out, I think Santana will have success landing in between Mamadjonov’s wilder, winging shots, and I think he will win a close but clear decision victory.

(Santana by decision: 97-92, including one knockdown)

Apr 12, 2013

#21 Yusaf Mack 31-5-2 (17) vs. #32 Cedric Agnew 25-0 (13), 12 rounds, Light Heavyweights

New Buffalo, MI

Former 2-time world title challenger Yusaf Mack returns to the ring this weekend (for the first time since losing to Carl Froch in November of last year), to face undefeated Chicagoan Cedric Agnew this weekend in New Buffalo, Michigan.  Mack is an experienced 32-year old who has been in with the likes of Glen Johnson, Tavoris Cloud and Librado Andrade, and he is currently 31-5-2 (17 KO’s) and rated 21st according to boxrec.com.  He has good movement, good defense, and a good jab, but he is not terribly effective fighting off his back foot, and he has been stopped 5 times total (3 times in his last 6 fights). 

In this fight, Mack will need to create (and maintain) distance against Agnew, double up on his jab, and use his legs to get him out of the way.  Agnew, a 26-year old prospect from Chicago (now fighting out of Houston) is a very skilled boxer who covers well, throws a nice right hand lead, and appears to have the disposition and fashion sense of a young Zab Judah or Adrien Broner.  So far, Agnew is 25-0 with 13 KO’s, he is currently rated 32nd according to boxrec.com, and he holds wins over 173rd rated Daniel Judah and 74th rated Otis Griffin.  Outside of that, Agnew has fought NOBODY.  In fact, 16 of Agnew’s 25 total opponents had losing records, as did 11 of his last 14.  Therefore the question becomes, is Agnew, despite being a talented prospect, ready for a test of this magnitude?

This is an interesting matchup, and a difficult fight to predict.  Mack is a very good boxer who performed well against Tavoris Cloud (and was actually ahead on one card through 7 rounds, and only trailing by 1 point and 3 points on the other two).  If he boxes successfully from the outside and stays active, he is more than capable of winning a decision in this fight.  If, however, Agnew is able to walk him down, he may be able to stop him sometime before the final bell.

In the end, I think Mack will box successfully over the first half of the fight, survive a late knockdown, and win this fight on the scorecards by a narrow margin.  I can almost see a Chavez Jr.-Sergio Martinez scenario playing out, with Mack leading much of the entire fight and hanging on for dear life at the end.  Therefore, in a close one, I think the movement, boxing ability, and experience of Mack will be the difference, as he holds on to retain his USBA title by the narrowest of margins.       

(Mack by close decision: 115-113)

Apr 13, 2013

#1 Nonito Donaire 31-1 (20) vs. #3 Guillermo Rigondeaux 11-0 (8), 12 rounds, WBO/WBA junior Featherweight Titles

New York, NY

(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)
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Nonito Donaire vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux

Nonito Donaire vs. Guillermo Rigondeaux 

(WBA/WBO Jr. Featherweight Titles)

 12 Rounds, New York, NY, April 13, 2013 (HBO)

This Saturday the “Filipino Flash,” Nonito Donaire, takes on master technician Guillermo Rigondeaux in a WBA-WBO Junior Featherweight unification battle live on HBO’s World Championship Boxing.  Donaire, considered one of the best pound-for pound fighters in the entire sport, is 30-years old, he is 31-1 with 20 knockouts, and he is currently rated #1 in the world according to boxrec.com.  He is a fast, explosive puncher, and this fight marks his 13th appearance in a major world title fight.  Last year, Donaire earned Fighter of the Year honors based on his victories over former champions Toshiaki Nishioka and Jorge Arce, as well as 8th rated Wilfredo Vasquez Jr., and 9th rated Jeffrey Mathebula.    Standing opposite Donaire in this fight is highly accomplished Cuban sensation Guillermo Rigondeaux, a 32-year old with a record of 11-0 (8 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #3.  Rigondeaux won the WBA title (in just his 9th professional fight) back in January of 2012 with a 6th round knockout of Rico Ramos, and since then he has beaten 64th rated Teon Kennedy and 35th rated Robert Marroquin.  In addition to having a stellar professional resume,

Rigondeaux was also a very accomplished amateur; amassing an overall record of 400-12, claiming 7 Cuban national titles, and two Olympic gold medals (2000 & 2004).  He is one of the most decorated boxers in recent memory, and some feel he is just beginning to scratch the surface.        

So tune in this Saturday at 11:00 PM ET to HBO’s World Championship Boxing and watch two of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport square off in a junior featherweight unification that is certain to produce plenty of drama and plenty of fireworks.

Nonito Donaire

31-1 (20)

 

Guillermo Rigondeaux

11-0 (8)

A

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

A

A+

Hand Speed

B+

A

Opposition & Experience

B

B

Defense

A

B

Power

B+

D

Punch Output

D-

A

Chin

A

D

Punch Accuracy

C-

A+

Conditioning

A

B+

Aggression

B

The Break Down

Nonito Donaire is an excellent boxer with incredibly fast hands and good power, and he is a calculating puncher, who despite only averaging around 50 punches per round (about 10 below the junior featherweight average), has the ability to control a fight by landing the harder, more telling blows.  In fact, against Jeffrey Mathebula, Donaire was outworked 919-515 and out-landed 231-151, but his 102 power connects were impressive enough to earn him a lopsided decision on the cards.  That is why crafting a strategy to beat him is such a tall order; he can adapt to virtually any style.  You can’t beat him with volume, and he is very difficult to “out-quick” out of the pocket (which is where Rigondeaux does most of his best work).  If Nonito Donaire utilizes his hand and foot speed, and remains active, he may be able to win rounds by placing Rigondeaux into a constant state of defense (much the way Oscar De la Hoya did to Pernell Whitaker), but he must be wary of Rigondeaux’s counter left, which is one of the best in the business.  Rigondeaux is VERY difficult to hit, and Donaire will want to try to hit the body, arms, and anything else he can, and hope that contact of any sort will be judged accordingly.       

For Rigondeaux, who is an excellent counter punching, defensive specialist, he will want to work at a higher rate than his usual 35-40 punches a round if he wants to make a favorable impression on the judges.  He rolls and slips punches nicely, he has good lateral movement, and he is awkward enough to give conventional fighters fits, but if he is not busy enough, Donaire can win rounds with 1 or 2 well placed shots.  Personally, I think Rigondeaux is one of the most technically sound fighters in the sport today, but if he doesn’t match Donaire’s intensity with his own brand of firepower, he will be at a disadvantage on the scorecards.  

Conclusion

Statistically, Nonito Donaire is very beatable.  He doesn’t throw many punches, he doesn’t land many punches, he seldom commits to throwing combinations, and he is not the most elusive fighter you will find. Unfortunately, beating him is next to impossible.  He is an excellent boxer, he is incredibly quick, he has exceptional knockout power when he taps into it (just ask Jorge Arce), and can beat you any number of ways.  In this fight, however, I only see one way that Donaire can win, and that involves a more aggressive approach to counteract the elusiveness of Rigondeaux.  Rigondeaux is a VERY talented boxer, and Donaire is likely in for the most difficult fight of his career.  The question is whether or not Rigondeaux is capable of getting credit for the subtle things he does well in the ring.  Much like the aforementioned De-la Hoya-Whitaker fight, I can see a similar scenario playing out with Donaire throwing (and missing) the more meaningful punches, and getting credit for “making” the fight, while Rigondeaux counters sharply and lands the cleaner, albeit “less showy” punches, and is penalized for not being “offensive minded” enough.  In the end, I predict that Rigondeaux will land a similar number of punches, and he will make Donaire miss repeatedly throughout the fight, but I believe the outcome will be determined by what the judges see and what they prefer; and ultimately, I think the flashiness of Donaire will win out over the consistency of Rigondeaux.

(Donaire by “controversial” spilt decision)

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Roman Martinez-Diego Magdaleno Preview

 Roman Martinez vs. Diego Magdaleno

(WBO Jr. Lightweight Title)

 12 Rounds, Macau, China, April 6, 2013 (HBO)

This Saturday Night in Macau, China, junior lightweights Roman “Rocky” Martinez and Diego Magdaleno will do battle for Martinez’s WBO hardware, on a special afternoon edition of HBO’s World Championship Boxing.  Martinez, 30-years old, is a high volume puncher from Puerto Rico with a record of 26-1-2 (16 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #13.  His only loss came against 3rd rated lightweight Ricky Burns back in September of 2010, and since then he is 2-0-1 with wins over Daniel Attah (#206), Miguel Beltran Jr. (#36), and a draw against 6th rated Juan Carlos Burgos back in January of this year.  Martinez is an exciting brawler, and in this fight he is up against his polar opposite in southpaw cutie Diego Magdaleno.  Magdaleno, 26-years old, is 23-0 with 9 knockouts, he is currently rated 15th according to boxrec.com, and he is coming off of back-to-back TKO wins over unrated Fernando Beltran and 211th rated Antonio Davis.  Magdaleno is a very sharp boxer with good hand speed and movement, and he is anxious to prove himself in his first world title shot. “It’s been a long time coming,” he told ESPN.com shortly after signing. “I’ve been promised a title shot a couple of times and they went downhill. Now this contract is here and in place. I look back to my amateur days — this is what I’ve been working so hard for. Now I can really go after what’s mine.

So tune in this Saturday at 2:00 PM ET to HBO to see if Diego Magdaleno can secure his first world title, or if Roman Martinez has what it takes to fend off his motivated challenger and successfully defend his title for the second time.  

Roman Martinez

26-1-2 (16)

 

Diego Magdaleno

23-0 (9)

B+

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

A-

B

Hand Speed

A

B+

Opposition & Experience

C+

C+

Defense

B+

B-

Power

D-

A

Punch Output

B+

A

Chin

A

B

Punch Accuracy

A-

A

Conditioning

A

B+

Aggression

B-

The Break Down

Diego Magdaleno is a sharp-shooting southpaw with good defense, good accuracy, and good movement.  When he is firing on all cylinders he is reminiscent of a young Hector Camacho, with his side-split trunks flopping up and down and his ability to jump in and out with lightning fast combinations.  In recent fights, Magdaleno has proven to be a very active and accurate puncher (averaging 77 punches a round versus Fernando Beltran and landing at a 39% clip) with some of the smoothest legs in the division (insert Lady Shaver joke here).  Actually, in a “sweet science” kind of way, Diego Magdaleno is fun to watch.  He moves well around the ring, he is adept at making opponents miss (Beltran only landed 21% of his total punches against him), and he throws crisp, short combinations.  Again, if he can dictate the terms and manage the distance, I think he is plenty capable of winning over the distance.  If, however, he gets drawn into a slugfest at close quarters, his advantages become less apparent.

For Roman Martinez, who is no stranger to wars, his strategy in this fight is to remain active, cut off the ring , and negate the hand speed of Magdaleno by fighting him in close, banging him to the body, and tying him up before he can counter back.  He is the more experienced of the two, he is more powerful, and he is the naturally more aggressive fighter.  If he can throw somewhere around 70 punches a round, and get Magdaleno out of rhythm, he may be able to rough up Magdaleno and take him places he’s never been before.  In the past, Martinez has been known to average more than 100 punches a round, and if that fighter emerges, it could be a long night for Magdaleno.    

Conclusion

This is a very interesting boxer/puncher matchup.  Diego Magdaleno is a skilled technician with a precise jab, good hand speed and good defense, and if he is able to dictate the pace with his jab, keep Martinez at distance, fire off combinations and pivot away, I think he can successfully out-box the champion over 12 rounds.  However, if Martinez is able to implement his game plan and fight Magdaleno at close quarters, a very different outcome could be possible.  Personally, I see this fight going one of two ways:  Magdaleno will either out-box Martinez, and capitalize on the idle moments, en route to winning a decision, or Martinez will apply pressure, wear Magdaleno down, and stop him sometime in the later rounds.  I don’t see Martinez winning a decision, and I certainly don’t foresee a scenario in which Magdaleno wins by KO.    

This fight is very close on paper, and the outcome may be determined by the fighter who can effectively impose their will on the other.   Martinez is a very experienced, active fighter with power, and he can be dangerous inside, particular for someone like Magdaleno who lacks the power to back him off.  Therefore, Magdaleno must fight a smart fight, moving in and out of range behind the jab, rattling off combinations and getting out.  It won’t be easy, and I can see Magdaleno getting dropped at some point, but he has a solid chin, and I predict his hand speed, boxing ability, and defense, will ultimately win out over the experience, power, activity, and aggression of Martinez.         

(Magdaleno by decision: 115-113)

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Fight Predictions for March 31 to April 6

Fight Predictions for March 31 to April 6

Apr 5, 2013

#26 Jonathan Maicelo 19-0 (11) vs. #304 UNR Rustam Nugaev 22-6-1 (12), 12 rounds, Lightweights

Santa Ynez, CA (ESPN2)

This weekend on Friday Night Fights, undefeated prospect Jonathan Maicello takes on last minute replacement Rustam Nugaev for the USBA lightweight title in Santa Ynez, California.  Maicello, a former amateur standout, is 19-0 with 11 KO’s, he is currently rated 26th according to boxrec.com, and he is the first Peruvian boxer ever to enter the world rankings (there are only 3 other fighters from Peru currently rated by boxrec.com).  Maicelo is a quick, counter-punching fighter with a good sense of distance and balance, and he is an interesting prospect worth keeping an eye on.  At times he can wait too long to throw, and he needs to work on putting his punches together better, but I expect him to do well in his first major televised bout.  Maicelo’s opponent in this fight is 30-year old Rustam Nugaev, a Russian with a record of 22-6-1 (12 KO’s) and wins in 7 out of his last 8.  Nugaev has fought outside of Russia on a number of occasions, but he is still a virtual unknown to most boxing fans around the world, and none of his last 7 victories came against any fighter currently rated better than 209th.  In all, I expect Nugaev to put up a good fight (he has never been stopped), but ultimately, this fight is meant to showcase Maicelo, and give him a proper introduction to the American audience; and I expect the outcome will reflect this.

(Maicelo by fairly lopsided decision: 99-91)

Apr 6, 2013

#UNR Zou Shiming 0-0 (0) vs. #396 Eleazar Valenzuela 2-1-2 (1), 4 rounds, Junior Flyweights

Macau, (HBO2)

Quick, name one world titlist from China? Actually Xiong Zhao Zhong won the WBC silver minimumweight title in June of last year, as well as the regular WBC title in November with a decision over Javier Martinez Resendez, becoming the first world champion in the history of boxing to hail from China.  Now, with the Olympic success of 2-time Gold Medalist Zou Shiming, Chinese boxing fans are brimming with the hopes of producing a potential hall of fame caliber talent.  Shiming is 31-years old, he is a 3-time world amateur champion, and in addition to winning 2 gold medals, he also won the bronze medal in the 2004 Games.  He has good defense, good movement, he punches well in combination, and he punches well with both hands.   “He has a lot of potential but he still makes a lot of amateur mistakes, said trainer Freddie Roach.  “He has a lot of bad habits, but we are getting rid of them slowly. He’s becoming a very good fighter.” Roach continued to say that Shiming had gained a lot of valuable experience sparring with current WBA/WBO flyweight champion Brian Viloria, and so far he is very pleased with the progress he’s seen.   

Shiming’s opponent on Saturday is 395th ranked Mexican Eleazer Valenzuela, who enters with a 2-1-2 record that includes 1 KO.  All I can say is, enjoy being on the better side of .500 while it lasts.

You can catch the much anticipated debut of Zou Shiming this Saturday at 2:00 PM ET on HBO. 

(Shiming by 3rd round KO)

Apr 6, 2013

#13 Roman “Rocky” Martinez 26-1-2 (16) vs. #15 Diego Magdaleno 23-0 (9), 12 rounds, WBO Junior Lightweight Title

Macau, (HBO2)

(Stay tuned for an in-depth analysis of the fight)

Apr 6, 2013

#1 Brian Viloria 32-3 (19) vs. #16 Juan Francisco Estrada 22-2 (18), 12 rounds, WBA/WBO Flyweight Title

Macau, (HBO2)

This Saturday in Macau, China, flyweight kingpin Brian Viloria defends his WBA and WBO titles against 16th ranked Mexican Juan Francisco Estrada.  Viloria, a former U.S. Olympian, is 32-3 (19 KO’s) and rated #1 according to boxrec.com.  Viloria, AKA “The Hawaiian Punch,” has won 12 out of 14 fights since 2007 (losing only in a majority decision to Edgar Sosa in 2007, and by TKO to 44th ranked Carlos Tamara in 2010), and he has won his last six fights in a row (4 by KO).  At the age of 32, Viloria is fighting better than ever, and his recent wins over Giovani Segura (#7), Omar Nino (#19), and Hernan Marquez (#8), very much justify his #1 ranking.  In this fight, Viloria faces Juan Francisco Estrada, a 22-year old with a record of 22-2 (18 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #16.  Estrada is an experienced boxer with good hand speed and foot movement, who typically comes forward in an aggressive posture; however, in his most recent fight with Roman Gonzalez, Estrada fought much of the fight going backwards (which can be visually unappealing to some judges), and he was hit repeatedly with the straight right hand.  Nevertheless, he is a tough young kid who’s never been knocked out, and his only 2 losses came against 2nd rated junior bantamweight Juan Carlos Sanchez and #1 rated junior flyweight Roman Gonzalez. 

I think this will be a very close fight.  Estrada has excellent boxing skills, and he may be able to frustrate Viloria with his movement; but if Viloria presses the action and throws a high volume of punches, I think he will prevail.  “Estrada is a warrior, and tough like most Mexican fighters,” said Viloria, “but I’ve done my homework and I know how to pull off a win.”

Viloria has been on an absolute roll of late, and he has shown excellent boxing skills, hand speed, and defense in his recent 6-fight stretch.  In addition, reports out of his training camp have him comfortably within range of the 112 pound flyweight limit, which should benefit him in the conditioning department come fight night. 

In the end, I predict Estrada will have success through the first 3 or 4 rounds, but I can see Viloria changing the tempo and pace of the fight with his aggression and quick right hand leads; ultimately winning with his hand speed, and accurate power punching.  Therefore, in a thrilling 12-round affair, I predict Viloria will retain his titles by 3-4 points on the scorecards. 

(Viloria by decision: 116-112)

Apr 6, 2013

#7 Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. 22-2-1 (19) vs. #26 Yasutako Ishimoto 21-6 (5), 12 rounds, Junior Featherweights

Macau, (HBO2)

Former junior featherweight world titlist Wilfredo Vazquez Jr. travels to China this Saturday to face 26th rated Japanese fighter Yasutako Ishimoto for a shot at one of the WBO’s “international” titles.  Vazquez, 22-2-1 (19 KO’s), lost a respectable split decision to Nonito Donaire in February of last year (meaning he wasn’t completely blown out or knocked out), and in his last fight he scored a come-from-behind TKO victory over 56th rated Jonathan Oquendo.  Currently rated 7th, Vazquez is out to prove he is still worthy of that ranking, and a victory over the highly capable Ishimoto may just help his cause.  Ishimota is 21-6 with 5 KO’s, he is currently rated 26th according to boxrec.com, and he while he has not beaten any notable names per se, he has won 9 out of his last 10 fights (losing only to 19th rated Masaaki Serie in February of last year).  Given the fact that Ishimoto has never been knocked out, and the fact that he fought former Japanese junior featherweight champion Serie VERY close, there is a much reason to believe that Ishimota will do well in this fight.  Wilfredo Vazquez is a talented boxer with excellent power and hand speed, but he fights in spurts and doesn’t always stay busy enough (he averaged just 38.5, 48.3, and 45.6 punches per round against Martin Sonsora, Jorge Arce, and Nonito Donaire, respectively), and he is relatively easy to hit (Donaire landed 60% against him).  If Ishimota stays active, smothers Vazquez, and takes the fight to him the way Oquendo did, then this one could get interesting; but the question is whether or not Ishimoto has the power to keep Vazquez from settling in with power shots?  Despite scoring TKO’s in each of his last 2 fights, Ishimoto only has 5 total KO’s in 27 professional fights (19% KO rate), and in 15 fights from 2006 to 2012 he only registered 1 stoppage victory.  Therefore, while I expect Vazquez to be involved in another exciting fight, I think his power advantage will be the difference, as he lands the more telling blows, and wins a competitive, but clear-cut decision over the distance. 

(Vasquez Jr. by decision: 117-111)

Apr 6, 2013

#66 Thomas Dulorme 17-1 (13) vs. #UNR Ivan Hernandez 29-3 (23) , 10 rounds, Junior Welterweights

Carolina, Puerto Rico

After suffering his first career defeat last October against Luis Abregu, Puerto Rican prospect Thomas Dulorme looks to repair his “contender” status this Saturday night with a win over Columbian rival Ivan Hernandez.  Dulorme had drawn “premature” comparisons to legendary Puerto Rican fighters like Miguel Cotto and Felix Trinidad; however, after suffering a major career setback against Abregu, he is anxious to get back to his winning ways in front of his home crowd.  Just 23-years of age, Dulorme, while likely not the next “Tito” Trinidad, is still a kid with a lot of talent and potential.  He can box from the outside and dictate the terms with his jab, he can counter with both hands, and he has good knockout power, as evidenced by his KO wins over Harrison Cuello and Aris Ambriz (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qIdjy0bpG8&feature=related, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60ku9RipXX4&feature=related).  Unfortunately, Dulorme is not a terribly active puncher (throwing just 56.8 punches per round against DeMarcus Corley and only 40.6 against Abregu), and when pressured he does not always respond appropriately.  In this fight, against unranked Ivan Hernandez, it may not matter much.  Hernandez does have a decent record (29-3, 23 KO’s), but 20 of his 29 wins came against fighters that either had losing records or were making their professional debuts, and his last 5 opponents had a combined record of 29-46-4.  Hernandez has travelled to Puerto Rico twice before, and both times he has returned to Columbia with a loss (against Jose Miguel Cotto and Ubaldo Hernandez).  I think after this one he’ll have the hat trick.   

(Dulorme by 5th round TKO)

Apr 6, 2013

#17 Leonard Bundu 28-0-2 (9) vs. #43 Rafal Jackiewicz 42-10-2 (21), 12 rounds, European Welterweight Title

Rome, Italy

Leonard Bundu, the current EBU Welterweight Champion, defends his title for the 4th time this Saturday against veteran Rafal Jackiewicz in Rome.  Bundu, an Italian himself, is 38-years old, he is 28-0-2 with 9 knockouts, and he is currently rated 17th according to boxrec.com.  He is a good combination puncher with good hand speed, and he rolls his shoulder just like the old-timers.  I think he is deserving of a major title shot at some point in the near future, and I hope he gets it before the clock ticks past the point of relevance.  An excellent amateur and Italian Olympic representative in 2000, Bundu is one of the best fighters out there still fighting in relative obscurity.  In this fight, Bundu is paired up with 36-year old Rafal Jackiewicz, a 12-year ring veteran with a record of 42-10-2 (21 KO’s) and a boxrec.com rating of #43.  Jackiewicz is a tough fighter who has only lost twice in his past 30 fights (a TKO loss to Kell Brook in October of 2011, and a majority decision loss to Jan Zaveck in September of 2010), and he is a solid technical fighter.  While he doesn’t overwhelm with blazing speed or power, he does enough things right that he can pose problems for all but the most talented in the division, and he had won 4 fights in a row, before fighting to a draw with 88th rated Rick Godding last November.  

In the end, I think this will be a competitive fight, but ultimately, I think Bundu is just way too quick and too sharp for Jackiewicz.  In addition, he looks like he hits WAY harder than his 30% KO rate would suggest, and I think he will take the fight to Jackiewicz, he will land the harder, straighter shots, and he will win a clear decision against a very tough opponent. 

(Bundu by decision: 116-112)

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Brandon Rios-Mike Alvarado II Preview

 Brandon Rios vs. Mike Alvarado II

(WBO Interim Jr. Welterweight Title)

 12 Rounds, Las Vegas, NV, March 30, 2013 (HBO)

This Saturday night on HBO, junior welterweights Brandon “Bam Bam” Rios and Mike “Mile High” Alvarado resume their hostilities, this time with the WBO “interim” title on the line.  Last October, these two met in one of the most exciting, and action-packed fights of the year, and now only the date has changed as Alvarado looks for redemption and Rios looks for another win inside the distance. 

Rios, 26-years old, is 31-0-1 with 23 KO’s, he is currently rated 6th according to Ring Magazine, and when motivated he is arguably the most exciting fighter in the sport.  He throws a ton of punches, he absorbs a ton of punches, and he never fights off his back foot.  If his head is right, he is VERY tough to beat, as Alvarado found out last time.  The question is whether Alvarado can ignore his natural instinct to stand and trade with Rios, and make this second fight more strategic than the last? He enters this fight at 33-1 with 23 KO’s and rated 9th according to boxrec.com, and after suffering his first career KO loss to Rios last October, he is anxious to bring the championship back to Denver. “That was a hard loss for me, but being defeated made me stronger. I have grown a lot-mentally, physically, emotionally, and I am focused and ready for this fight.”          

So tune in this Saturday night 10:15 pm ET to HBO to see if Mike “Mile High” Alvarado can avenge his first professional loss or if Brandon Rios can defend his title and continue his assault on the junior welterweight division. 

Brandon Rios

31-0-1 (23)

 

Mike Alvarado

33-1 (23)

B

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

B+

B

Hand Speed

B+

A

Opposition & Experience

B-

D

Defense

D

A

Power

A-

B+

Punch Output

A-

A+

Chin

B+

B

Punch Accuracy

C+

A

Conditioning

A

A

Aggression

B+

The Break Down

Brandon Rios is an aggressive, all-action fighter who lives at close range and relies on his solid chin and power punching accuracy to wear down his opponents through attrition.  There is nothing flashy or “scientific” about his methods.  Instead, he simply wades in, taunts you as you land “knuckle breaking” shots, and then fires back once he’s got you in range.  Traditionally, Rios throws somewhere around 78 punches a round (18 over the junior welterweight average) and he lands at a rate of close to 35%; however, in his fight with Alvarado, he threw 238 fewer punches than his opponent, but still managed to land 12 more power shots over the course of the fight (144-132).  In other words, Rios makes his living with power shots (he only landed 17 jabs in their first fight), and if he can goad Alvarado into exchanging at close quarters once again, he is almost guaranteed to do more damage in the trenches.      

c

Mike Alvarado, on the other hand, is a high volume fighter that is cut out of the same mold as Brandon Rios.  He throws about 77 punches a round (he actually averaged 111 punches per round in his last fight with Rios), and he has good boxing ability and good overall movement.  The problem is he chooses to fight too stationary, and he doesn’t have the power or overall constitution to match Rios punch for punch.  Therefore, his ONLY way of winning this fight, in my opinion, is to give angles, punch selectively in combination, and pivot away.  Alvarado does have good hand speed and a good jab, but he must use that jab more effectively this time to keep Rios at a safe distance, rather than just pawing with it in the pocket; and if he stays active and MOBILE I think he can win this fight over the distance, but if his “warring” mentality kicks in, he will again find himself in a pace and style that doesn’t suit him.   

Conclusion

This has the makings of another wildly entertaining fight.  The first matchup was definitely one for the ages, and given the temperament and disposition displayed by these two in training camp, I would expect the second fight to be no different.  Last time, the fight was virtually even through the first 6 rounds Rios, as Rios was ahead by just 2 points on one card and even on the other two.  However, the weight of the punches, and the ability to absorb them were the difference in a brave, but losing effort by Alvarado.  This time, Rios is out to inflict damage once again, and the question is whether or not Alvarado can employ an effective counter-strategy.  In the end, I think Brandon Rios can be out-boxed, but he cannot be out-slugged; and for Mike Alvarado, unfortunately, the latter method is all he knows.  Therefore, while I predict Alvarado will make some adjustments in this fight, (maintaining distance, throwing effective jabs, and combinations), I think he will fall into the same trap, and Rios will get the all-out war he desires.  “Boxing might be a science to some but to me it is about passion, heart and courage. It’s about giving the fans what they want- a battle of wills and brawn”, said Rios.  Regardless of his shortcomings as a fighter, Brandon Rios definitely has the will and the brawn, and I think that will be enough to secure him another stoppage win.   

(Rios by 9th round TKO)

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