Tag Archive for boxing predictions

Will Green Find “Silver” in Denmark?

Will Green Find “Silver” in Denmark?

By Aaron Lloyd

May 18, 2012- This weekend, veteran super middleweight contender Allan Green continues his quest for his “elusive” first major world title, as he travels to Copenhagen Denmark to challenge Mikkel Kessler, 44-2 (33), for the vacant WBC “silver” light heavyweight title.  Green, who is 31-3 with 21 knockouts, and is currently rated #10 according to the WBC, appeared confident in a recent interview about his chances of getting the upset in hostile territory, despite his coming into the fight as a distinct underdog.  

“I have a lot of options.  He’s not very fast, he’s straight up and down.  He’s probably strong but he’s nowhere near as strong as I am.  We can easily out-box him, or we can press him if we want to, because our defense is much better than his.  His defense is his offense, and being that I’m a natural counter puncher, that just creates a lot of openings for me.  His problem will be dealing with my speed and power.” 

When asked about how he will deal with the pressure of fighting in Kessler’s backyard in front of tens of thousands of partisan supporters, Green jokingly replied:

“The only time I have to worry about that is if I’m walking to the ring and I see everybody in the crowd with trunks and gloves on- then it’s a problem.”

For Kessler, this fight marks his first at the light heavyweight limit, and his first fight in nearly a year.  He has battled hand injuries in the past, and many are anxious to see if he can return to the form that resulted in a thrilling, hard-fought decision victory over Carl Froch back in April of 2010.  Kessler has long been considered one of the premier talents in the 168 pound division, and now, a foray into the light heavyweight division could bring interesting potential matchups with fighters like Chad Dawson and Tavoris Cloud, as well as European fighters like Nathan Cleverly and Tony Bellew.  First, however, he must get past the highly motivated  American challenger in order to prove his relevance in future big-name fights, which could prove to be more difficult proposition than what many anticipate.

“I feel strong, I feel fast, I feel fit,” said Green.  “I am full of energy, and I am ready to bring the belt home.

Green has quick hands, he is an excellent counter puncher, and he is a tough, awkward guy to face.  The problem is that he is too easy to hit, and his record substantiates the notion that he is always a notch below the very best in the division.  Kessler is still presumably at that “very best” level, but he has only fought twice in the past two and a half years, and never at light heavyweight, which means this fight has the potential to be an entertaining, and evenly contested matchup.  I think Kessler is the more accurate puncher, and when thrown in combination, his offense can be dangerously effective.  In addition, he took a tremendous amount of punishment in his bout with Carl Froch, and yet he stood firm and continued to come forward.  In the end, I don’t think Green can win by knockout, and I highly doubt that he can match Kessler in terms of boxing ability, or be effective enough to win a decision in Denmark.  Therefore, I think it becomes a question of the manner in which Kessler will prevail; and a close decision seems to be the most rational of outcomes, given Allan’s history against quality fighters.     

The Mikkel Kessler-Allan Green WBC “silver” light heavyweight title bout will take place Saturday night at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark, and will be broadcast by Boxnation (http://www.boxnation.com/boxing-matches/) as well as ESPN3 (http://espn.go.com/watchespn/index/_/id/493084/mikkel-kessler-vs-allan-green)  beginning at 5:00 EST.

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Weekly Predictions 2/5-2/11

Demetrius Andrade vs. Angel Hernandez

(Jr. Middleweights)

10 Rounds, Uncasville, CT, February 10, 2012 (ESPN2)

Former U.S. Olympian Demetrius Andrade looks to stay unbeaten and continue his path up the rankings this Friday against 30-10 (17) Angel Hernandez this weekend on ESPN’s Friday Night Fights.  Andrade has looked impressive in most of his 15 outings, however, some grumblings about his choice of opposition are starting to surface (not from me, of course), and many in the fight game feel that it is time for him to start stepping things up a bit.  Andrade is currently rated #21 by boxrec.com, and the last minute “flavor of the minute” replacement he is now fighting cannot possibly help increase his exposure at this point.  Hernandez is not quite the caliber of fighter that critics of Andrade were hoping for (having lost his last 3 fights in a row and 6 out of his last 10), but he has fought some very respectable opposition, and he is available for the date in question; which is really all that matters at this point.

I am hoping for a competitive fight, but I have a feeling that things may play out with Andrade boxing and using his jab on the outside, and Hernandez stalking, throwing one or two punches and trying to find a way inside.  It could be a little slow going, but hopefully the offense will find its way into the rotation before the ten rounds are over.

Demetrius Andrade

15-0 (10)

 

Angel Hernandez

30-10 (17)

C

Opposition & Experience

A

C+

Punch Output

C+

B+

Boxing Ability & Intangibles

C-

B

Aggression

B+

B

Power

C

A

Hand Speed

B-

B+

Defense

C-

B+

Chin

B

A

Conditioning

B

B

Punch Accuracy

C

The Break Down

Andrade has just about every advantage that one fighter can have over another in this fight.  He is faster, busier, better at controlling the tempo, he hits harder, he takes a better punch, and he has the added benefit of being thirteen years younger and five inches taller.  Andrade does have a tendency to fight out of a wide stance, negating his size advantage, but all in all, I think he is quick enough, and long enough to keep Hernandez on the end of his jab all night, making it a very frustrating fight for the journeyman replacement.

Conclusion

About all that Hernandez has to rely on in this fight is his experience fighting high-profile opponents like Osumanu Adama, Peter Manfredo Jr., Vanes Martirosyan, and Winky wright (of course, it is debatable whether much can actually be learned from being TKO’d and easily decisioned repeatedly).  Nevertheless, Hernandez does have 262 rounds worth of professional boxing experience under his belt to Andrade’s to 59, so perhaps his “hard knocks” style ring education has provided him with some sort of benefit.  Unfortunately, I am just not sure that he has the footwork, the comparable boxing skills, or enough offense to keep Andrade from landing the cleaner, harder combinations over the duration.  In the end, Hernandez has never demonstrated the ability to beat elite level competition, and now that he is 36 years old, it seems highly unlikely that he will be able to reverse his fate this late in the game.  Andrade is simply too good in too many categories for this fight to be competitive, therefore, Hernandez may avoid being TKO’d a third time, but he will not be able to avoid the inevitable eleventh loss of his career.  

(Andrade by unanimous decision)

Additional Fight Predictions for February 5 to February 11

Date and Time (EST)

Event

Channel

Feb 10, 2012

Ray Serrano vs. Kenny Abrill (Jr. Welterweights)

ESPN2

Ray Serrano is an exciting young junior welterweight prospect from Philadelphia, with a record of 17-0, including 8 wins coming by way of knockout.  He has a fan-friendly style, and at just 22 years of age, he has a tremendous amount of upside.  In this fight, he faces a 31-year old from New York, with a record of 11-4-1, including six knockouts.  Outside of going the distance with Cuban Yordenis Ugas in his last fight, Abrill has yet to produce any noteworthy performances, and I would wager that it will not be Abrill’s name that we will be discussing after this fight either (unless he is on the receiving end of a highlight reel KO).  In the end, while Serrano is still untested himself, I like what I have seen from him so far, and I predict he will come out and make a quick statement en route to claiming his 18th victory.

(Serrano by 4th round KO)

Feb 10, 2012

Orlando Cruz vs. Alejandro Delgado (Featherweights)

Telemundo

Orlando Cruz is a 30-year old featherweight from Puerto Rico with a record of 17-2-1 including 8 knockouts.  He is currently rated #47 by boxrec.com, and his only two losses came in recent bouts against Cornelius Lock and Daniel Ponce de Leon.  Ortiz has quick hands, and a slick southpaw style, but he is easily hurt, and he doesn’t appear to like pressure when applied.  When Ponce de Leon came forward, Ortiz tried to mix it up, but ultimately caught more than his fair share of shots, and ended up going down for good after a serious of body shots in the third.  In this fight, Cruz likely won’t find the action quite as frantic as he did against Ponce de Leon, and as a result, he may be able to box his way to a win.  His opponent, Alejandro Delgado, is 15-5 with 7 knockouts, and he has lost 3 of his last 5, including a 10 round decision to a fighter with a record of 7-10, and a first round KO loss to Christian Esquival in July of 2007.  Cruz is a few grades above Delgado, and the difference in ability should be rather apparent.

(Ortiz by unanimous decision)

Feb 10, 2012

Lucas Matthysse vs. Silverio Ortiz (Jr. Welterweights)

 

Veteran junior welterweight Lucas Matthysse is back again after scoring a 4 round KO over Sergio Priotti back in December of last year.  Matthysse is ranked #12 by boxrec.com at 140 pounds, and despite split decision losses to Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, he still finds himself very much alive in the junior middleweight title landscape.  He is 29-2 with 27 knockouts, and he is a tough, exciting fighter that has proven himself capable of contending with the division’s elite.  Unfortunately, Silverio Ortiz is not the division’s elite.  He is a 29-year old from Mexico, who despite winning 4 out of his last 5 fights, has still lost 13 of his 36 total fights, including 4 by knockout. Matthysse is still world class; Silverio is a not a so much.

(Matthysse by 5th round KO)

Feb 10, 2012

Kevin Mitchell vs. Felix Lora (Lightweights)

 

Kevin Mitchell is back in action this Friday, and looking to build on his exceptional 8th round stoppage of countryman John Murray last July.  Mitchell is 27 years old, he is 32-1 with 24 knockouts, and his only loss came against Michael Katsidis in May of 2010.  Mitchell only fought once in 2011, so here is to hoping he keeps a busy appointment book this year.  Mitchell is a very good boxer, and skilled defensive specialist who makes guys miss and counters well.  The fact that he was able to stop John Murray (who took a hellacious beating against Brandon Rios last December), and the fact that he has 24 wins inside the distance means he has power to go with his quickness.  Lora is 14-8-5, he is barely ranked inside the top 150, and he has lost 2 of his last 3.  I will excuse Mitchell for fighting down every once in a while, as long he decides to fight more often.

(Mitchell by 3rd round KO)

Feb 11, 2012

Prizefighter Junior Welterweight Tournament

 

Live from Wolverhampton, England, another round of “Prizefighting” action takes place this weekend, this time in the junior welterweight division.  Taking part in this installment are Dean Harrison-16-6 (5), Adil Anwar-13-1 (7), John Watson-13-2 (5), and Tyrone Nurse-20-0 (3) among others.  The eight man tournament will include 7 bouts (all three rounds a piece) over the course of one night, with a winner to be determined by night’s end.

Feb 11, 2012

Samuel Vargas vs. Manolis Plaitis (Welterweights)

 

Samuel Vargas is an undefeated welterweight, originally from Columbia, now residing in Canada, who is 8-0-1 with 2 knockouts.  He is rated #117 by boxrec.com, and his opponent, Manolis Plaitis, is rated #294 accordingly.  Plaitis is 17-1-1 with 8 KO’s, however, the last opponent he faced was 9-13-2, and two fights ago, he was knocked out by a fighter that was 4-1.  Factoring in the ages of these two fighters, and their general inexperience, this actually could be an evenly matched bout.  However, having seen Vargas fight Ahmad Cheiko a couple of months ago, I know the guy can bang, and he can definitely take a licking, which makes it easier for me to choose him over a guy that I know considerably less about (Here is a clip of Vargas in action against Ahmad Cheikho, which just happens to be one of the best rounds of2011).  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYWZT740bVY

(Vargas by 5th round KO)

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